Demand for U.S. cotton in 2008/09 is expected to be equal to this season’s 18.8 million bales, but exports are forecast to account for a larger share. U.S. cotton exports are expected rise in 2008/09 to 14.5 million bales, 300,000 bales above the latest 2007/08 estimate and equal to the U.S. crop projection. The export forecast, accounting for 77 percent of the anticipated demand for U.S. cotton, is supported by an increase in foreign mill use coupled with a decline in foreign stocks in 2007/08. Despite a projected increase in foreign production in 2008/09, foreign import demand also is likely to rise, reaching 41 million bales. Although U.S. exports are projected to increase from 2007/08, the U.S. share of global trade is expected to decline from 37 percent to 35 percent in 2008/09.
U.S. cotton mill use is projected to trend lower once again in 2008/09, as pressures from imported products continue to reduce capacity in the U.S. textile industry. The initial forecast of 4.3 million bales is 300,000 bales below the 2007/08 estimate and the lowest in more than 100 years.
With U.S. cotton demand forecast to exceed production in 2008/09, ending stocks are projected to decrease significantly after 4 years of increases. Stocks are projected at 5.6 million bales on July 31, 2009, with a stocks-to-use ratio estimated at 30 percent, compared with the current season’s 53 percent.
Source: USDA