WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George W. Bush in his State of the Union address on Tuesday is likely to promote fuel efficient vehicles, ethanol and new technologies as a way to address global warming and reduce the country’s dependence on oil, officials said Friday.
White House aides have maintained that energy will be one of the central themes in the annual address before Congress, along with the Iraq war, health care, immigration and education issues.
The White House has refused to release specifics about the speech. But spokesman Tony Snow said Thursday that “this president believes deeply in the importance of trying to innovate our way out of a situation where we’ve been dependent on an oil source that can render us insecure.“
No Climate Change Shift?
A top U.S. Chamber of Commerce official doesn’t expect Bush - who has long opposed a mandatory cap-and-trade program for reducing greenhouse gas emissions - to announce any major shifts on climate change.
“We think he’s going to hit climate change from a technological point of view,“ said Bill Kovacs, the business federation’s vice president of environment technology and regulatory affairs.
However, Kovacs added that Bush might promote hydrogen-powered cars as way to reduce global warming-causing pollution.
Another source, who represents electric utilities that back clean energy programs, also remains doubtful that the president will back a mandatory program.
“I haven’t heard anything that says it’s a dramatic shift,“ she said.
Meanwhile, an analyst at brokerage firm Friedman Billings Ramsey said he believes the Bush administration has been increasingly accepting the relationship between hydrocarbon combustion and climate change. But any shift in climate-change policy will continue to be gradual, said the analyst, Kevin Book.
“People who think there’s a shift on climate change are right,“ but it wasn’t a sudden one, he said. “It’s been subtle.“
Book said he expects biofuels to be one of Bush’s points of emphasis because it represents a “sweet spot“ in his goal to address economic and national security. And also because it’s an issue that “sits comfortably among party lines.“
Meanwhile, Congress is already poised to advance a farm bill this year that will place a huge focus on renewable fuels.
“We think he’s going to hit something with ethanol and say more on trying to get the breakthroughs on cellulosic,“ said Kovacs.
Cellulosic ethanol is an alternative motor fuel that can be produced from waste and biomass products like wood chips and corn stover.
Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill have steadily called for new federal standards that would require greater use of ethanol in the nation’s motor fuel. They argue that increased use of ethanol will reduce the country’s dependence on foreign oil. But ethanol industry officials have made clear that those higher standards can’t be met from corn-based ethanol alone.
That’s where cellulosic comes in.
Cellulosic plants are extremely costly and Bush is likely to continue his push for research-and-development funding to find ways to bring the costs down.
Boosting Vehicle Efficiency Rules
Bush is also expected to address vehicle fuel efficiency, which would come on the heels of a new proposal unveiled by U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens. The senior GOP lawmaker from Alaska recently proposed raising fuel economy standards from the current 27 miles a gallon to 40 miles a gallon by 2017.
Still, Bush’s comments might not go as far as some public interest groups would like.
The administration last year asked Congress for new authority to change fuel efficiency requirements for passenger cars, and some sources say they’re expecting Bush to renew that call rather than make a new announcement.
“I wouldn’t expect anything new,“ said one administration source.
But public interest groups say Bush has the authority to direct the U.S. Department of Transportation to develop a rule requiring more efficient cars.
“We don’t think that he needs to continue to ask for more authority to raise CAFE standards,“ said Anna Aurilio, director of U.S. Public Interest Research Group’s Washington office. “He just needs to go ahead and do it.“
Environmental Groups’ Priorities
Environmental groups have made clear they will be pushing Bush to make aggressive energy policy announcements, particularly on the issue of climate change.
“The president must signal a commitment...to real energy solutions that address global warming and put us on a new energy path,“ said Natural Resources Defense Council President Frances Beinecke. “We’re looking for a cap and trade program for global warming pollution.“
The goal should be to reduce global warming pollution 20% below current levels by 2020 and 80% by mid-century, she added.
“We expect the president will talk about oil dependence on climate change,“ but it’s critical for him to offer concrete proposals for reductions in global warming pollutants, said Kevin Knobloch, president of the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Still, according to recent comments from the White House, Bush is more likely to encourage innovation as a way to develop more air-friendly, alternative energy sources.
“Carrots tend to work better than sticks,“ said White House spokesman Snow.
Source: Maya Jackson Randall, Dow Jones Newswires 202-862-9263 Maya.Jackson-Randall@dowjones.com