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Cattle Market Notes: Feeder Market Volatile, Corn Futures Melt-Down

07/19/2008 07:31AM

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Last week, fed cattle prices came in at $99 to $100 on a live basis – down $1 or $2 from the prior week. Dressed sales were mostly at $158 last week, also down $1 or $2.This week, with cutout values continuing to slide, cash fed cattle prices declined by another couple of dollars.This week’s trade was pretty spread out, with fairly light business taking place as early as Monday in some locations and wrapping up with light business on Thursday.For the week, live prices in the south were mostly $97 to $98.Dressed prices in the north and in the Corn Belt were mostly $154 to $155.Cattle slaughter this week is projected at 686,000 head – down from 697,000 head last week but larger than last year’s 682,000 head.Hog slaughter is also down a touch this week: 2,145,000 head this week versus 2,152,000 head last week (1,958,000 head a year ago).

Calf prices around the country were mostly steady or higher this week.Falling corn futures apparently more than made up for the disappointing fed cattle market this week.At Oklahoma City, prices on feeder cattle were steady to $2 lower.The stocker market was too thin to call.At Lexington, Kentucky, prices on feeder steers were steady to $1 higher, and prices on feeder heifers were steady.Prices on stocker steers were steady to $3 higher, and prices on stocker heifers were $2 to $4 higher.At West Plains, Missouri, prices on steers and heifers ended $2 to $5 higher after starting the day just steady to $2 higher.Steers from 500 to 650 pounds were noted to be an exception at prices just steady with last week.At Arkansas auctions this week, steer prices were steady to $3 higher.Heifer prices were near steady.At Georgia auctions this week, prices on feeder steers were $1 to $2 higher; prices on feeder heifers were steady to $1 higher.Stocker steers sold $1 to $3 higher, and stocker heifers sold steady to $2 higher.

At Mississippi auctions this week, prices on steers were steady to $3 higher; and prices on heifers were steady.For the week, feeder steer prices in Mississippi were as follows: 250-300 pounds, $109-$117; 300-400 pounds, $103-$112; 400-500 pounds, $96-$107; 500-600 pounds, $98-$107; 600-700 pounds, $96-$106; 700-800 pounds, $85-$92.Prices on slaughter cows were steady this week.For the week: boners (850-1,200#), $50-$58; lean (850-1,200#), $46-$55.

Live cattle futures were lower again this week.Of course, early cash trade at lower prices than the prior week made a live cattle rally this week very unlikely.The market appeared also to be troubled by lackluster boxed beef prices and movement this week, following a similarly unspectacular week last week.Finally, though everyone in the livestock sector was surely cheering lower corn futures, this did put some pressure on deferred Live Cattle and Lean Hog contracts.Live Cattle futures closing prices on Friday (with change from last week’s close in parentheses) were as follows: August $97.50 (-3.70); October $105.10 (-3.47); December $108.07 (-3.33); February $109.52 (-3.43); April $111.50 (-2.35).

Feeder Cattle futures were pretty volatile this week.A weak fed cattle market and declining Live Cattle futures argued for lower feeder cattle, but sharply lower corn futures strongly supported the feeder cattle cause.In the end, feeders ended the week higher, enjoying a strong push higher on Friday as corn capped off a very rough week with another day of big losses.Feeder Cattle futures closing prices on Friday (with change from last week’s close in parentheses): August $113.87 (+2.15); September $114.50 (+0.80); October $116.27 (+0.72); November $117.45 (+1.00); January $116.40 (+0.65).

Corn futures began to really look they are in full melt-down mode this week.The string of sharp losses was interrupted only briefly on Wednesday as some long-range forecasts were released that called for hot, dry weather somewhere down the road.For the most part, the market was focused on the here-and-now, though.Excellent Midwest weather continues to improve crop conditions during this very critical phase for the crop.Corn also came under pressure from outside markets.Sharply lower crude oil futures sparked a good bit of commodity liquidation that weighed on the corn market.Of course, just as the flood-induced corn rally was overdone, the current response to favorable weather will likely be overdone as well.The corn balance sheet still looks pretty scary from a livestock producer perspective.A few weeks of nice weather in Iowa won’t change that – on the other hand, it sure doesn’t hurt.On Friday, September corn closed at $6.09 ½, down 81 ½ cents from last Thursday.

As noted, wholesale beef prices didn’t look too impressive this week.On Friday, the Choice cutout worked out to $168.26, down $3.45 from last Friday.The Select cutout was $160.76, down $3.04 from last Friday.   

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