Drought Monitor: Wet In The Midwest, Dry In The Florida Peninsula
11/05/2009 09:15AM
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Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas: Another wet week over much of the region, continuing the trend of a wet fall for most locations. Improvements were made to the D0 in New York and into Pennsylvania. Improvements were also made to the northwest area of the D0 and D1 in North Carolina while the D0 was removed completely from Virginia, pushing the DO boundary into north central North Carolina. Because of lingering dryness along the coast of South Carolina, an expansion of DO was considered, but was not made at this time.
Florida: The last few months have been dry over much of the Florida peninsula. There was an expansion of D0 along the eastern coast and a new area of D0 in extreme south Florida. The lack of any serious impacts at this time has prevented the introduction of D1. Many areas of Florida are still showing a wet signal out to 6 months with the influence of widespread heavy rains that took place in late May, helping to ease concerns about the recent dry stretch as Florida transitions into their dry season.
Midwest: A wet week over much of the Midwest has many agricultural producers eager to harvest their crops. Wet fields and standing water, along with a late-maturing corn crop, have delayed the grain harvest for many. Improvements to the D0/D1 over Minnesota and Wisconsin were made, with all of western Minnesota considered drought free at this time. The recent rains have replenished soil moisture and helped with river and stream levels, but there are continuing long-term hydrological issues that are not showing much response yet to the wet weather.
The Southern Plains: Mostly status quo for the region this week. Improvements were made in southeast Texas to the D0/D1 conditions as this area has shown enough improvement from recent rains to pull back some of the drought. The area around Lubbock is starting to show more dryness, but the introduction of D1 was held off this week as the dryness has not persisted long enough to impact the wheat crop and there are no other impacts being reported at this time.
The West: A quiet week in the western United States allowed for just a few changes on the drought depiction. D0 was expanded southward in northern California because of continuing water issues in the area. D1 was expanded out of Arizona and connected to the D1 in southern California. The D1 expansion also included the southern tip of Nevada. Improvements were made to the D0 in Montana, Idaho and Washington as good precipitation since the start of the water year has allowed for conditions to improve.
Alaska and Hawaii: No changes for Alaska this week. For Hawaii, Kauai and Oahu saw improvements to the D0 over the northeastern portions of those islands as the onset of the wet season has produced normal to above-normal rainfall. On the Big Island, the Pohakuloa area is still having poor pasture and vegetation conditions, leading to an expansion of the D3 there. On the southern end of the Big Island, upslope rainfall has allowed for improvements to pastures in the upper elevations, but the lower elevations are still poor, allowing D3 to be improved slightly this week for the upper elevation locations.
Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (November 4-8), a warming trend will occur over much of the United States, centered over the High Plains. Temperatures should be 6-12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, with the greatest departures over Nebraska and South Dakota. Precipitation chances look to be greatest over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation chances also look good over portions of the Gulf Coast and portions of south Florida. The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day forecast (November 9-13) temperatures continue to be well above normal over the eastern half of the United States, with the warmest temperatures centered over the Great Lakes. Below-normal temperatures are anticipated over California, Nevada and Alaska during this time. Precipitation chances are projected to be greatest over the Plains and Mississippi Valley and Pacific Northwest. The western portions of Alaska should have above-normal precipitation as well.
Author: Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center
Dryness Categories
D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.
Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought
Drought or Dryness Types
A ... Agricultural
H ... Hydrological
