South Africa’s 2006/07 corn production is forecast at 7.0 million tons, down 2.5 million tons from last month but up 0.1 million from last year. Area is forecast at 2.9 million hectares, down 0.2 million hectares from last month but up 0.9 million or 45 percent from last year. Area was reduced from last month, because low rainfall prevented farmers from planting all their seeds and crops failed in many regions in the west due to moisture stress and high temperatures from early January through early March. The estimated yield of 2.41 tons per hectare is below the 5- year-average yield of 3.10 tons.
Crop conditions were above average at the end of December, but prolonged dryness and near record high temperatures from early January through early March (during the critical pollination and early grain-filling stages) caused irreversible crop damage and lowered potential yield and grain quality. In addition, the crop continues to wilt from lack of rainfall and warm temperatures in early March.
Crop conditions in the east are better than in the west, but yields in the east will also be below average. Rainfall in March would help to reduce further yield losses, but dry and hot weather during January and February reduced yields to below average for most regions within the Maize Triangle.
On February 27, the National Crop Estimates Committee (NCEC) released their first corn production estimate for the commercial sector of 7.7 million tons on 2.59 million hectares. Next month, their estimate will include the developing sector, which last year was estimated at\ 0.3 million tons on approximately 430,000 hectares. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
Source: World Ag Production