U.S. feed grain production in 2009/10 is projected at 327.6 million metric tons, up 8.6 million tons from a month ago and up 1.7 million from 2008. The June 30 Acreage report showed planted acres increased from earlier intentions for corn, but decreased slightly for oats and barley. Sorghum planted area remains unchanged. The first survey-based production forecast for barley is down 22 million bushels from the previous projection, which was based on trend yields and intended plantings. The lower barley production forecast reflects lower harvested area and yields. The first survey-based oats production forecast is up 1 million bushels from the June projection, reflecting slightly higher harvested area and yields. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will make its first survey-based forecasts for corn and sorghum in the August 12 Crop Production report.
Feed grain supply in 2009/10 is projected at 379.9 million metric tons, up 12.7 million from last month and up 6 million tons from 2008/09. Feed grain imports are increased 100,000 tons from last month but are down by 22,000 tons in 2008/09. Beginning stocks in 2009/10 were increased 4.1 million tons this month to 49.4 million because of lower use in 2008/09.
Projected total use of feed grains in 2008/09 is decreased 4.1 million tons this month, reflecting lower-than-expected feed and residual use, food and industrial use, and ethanol production. Ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 49.4 million tons, up 4.1 million tons from last month and up 4.3 million tons from 2007/08.
Feed and residual use of all feed grains in 2009/10 is expected to total 139.4 million metric tons and account for 41 percent of total use. When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 144.3 million tons, down from the 2008/09 forecast of 146.6 million. Corn is projected to account for 92 percent of total grain feed and residual use, up from a forecast 91 percent in 2008/09.
The index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs) for 2009/10 is expected to be down 1.8 million units from the 2008/09 forecast of 92.9 million units. The grain used per GCAU would be 1.58 tons, unchanged from 2008/09. In the index components, GCAUs for all types of poultry are up, while those for the other categories are down slightly, with cattle on feed being down the most.
Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.4 million head on June 1, 2009. The inventory was 4 percent below June 1, 2008. Thus, current feed use by cattle in feedlots is expected to decline in 2010. Beef production in 2010 is forecast at 26 billion pounds, down from 26.3 billion in 2009. In addition, some of the feed needs may be satisfied by increased use of distiller’s spent grains produced by the expanding ethanol industry.
Pork production in 2010 is expected to decrease 1 percent from the 22.8 billion pounds expected in 2009. Hog farmers responding to the June 2009 survey intend to have 2.97 million sows farrow during the June-August 2009 quarter, down 3 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2008, and down 5 percent from 2007. Intended farrowings for September-November 2009, at 2.96 million sows, are down 2 percent from 2008 and down 7 percent from 2007. This slower-than-expected decline in farrowing intentions and continued gains in pigs per litter result in larger supplies of slaughter hogs in 2010. In addition, lower forecasted feed prices, compared with last month, supports heavier carcass weights and increased feed use for 2009/10.
The broiler production forecast for 2010 is also raised as lower feed prices are expected to aid in producer returns. Broiler production in 2010 is expected to increase 1.5 percent from the projected 2009 production. Forecast turkey production in 2010 is up 2 percent from 2009. Egg producers are expected to produce 7.6 billion dozen eggs in 2010, up 1 percent from the projected 2009 output. Milk production in 2010 is forecast at 186.4 billion pounds down from 187.6 billion pounds expected in 2009. These forecast decreases in 2010 production will likely decrease feed use.
Source: USDA