Feed Outlook: World Coarse Grain Production Up Despite China Corn Reduction
10/14/2009 10:06AM
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Projected global 2009/10 coarse grain production increased 2.5 million tons this month to 1,092.5 million. Increased world barley production and increased U.S. corn production more than offset a 5.0-million-ton drop in China’s corn.
This month, numerous revisions were made to coarse grain production in Sub-Saharan Africa, including the revision of sorghum and millet databases back to 2000. Previously, sorghum had been reported with millet for some countries, but starting this month, sorghum and millet production are reported separately for Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Congo (Kinshasa), Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Sierra Leone, Togo, and Botswana. Additionally, the marketing year was shifted for Mozambique and Zimbabwe to move production into the first year of the split year, effectively treating these countries as importers, and differently from South Africa. The revisions that broke out sorghum from millet were the main reason foreign millet production declined 2.3 million tons and sorghum increased 2.1 million tons.
China’s corn production is forecast down 5.0 million tons at 155.0 million. Harvested area is revised up 0.5 million hectares to 30.0 million, slightly above the level of the previous year, as area responded to incentives, including Government intervention to support prices. However, hot dry weather during tasselling significantly reduced corn yields in Western Manchuria, a key corn-producing region. China’s average corn yield is projected down 5 percent this month to 5.17 tons per hectare, down 7 percent from an estimated record a year ago.
Reduced 2009/10 corn production is also projected this month for Russia, down 0.3 million tons to 4.7 million, as dryness limited yields; for Moldova, down 0.2 million tons to 0.8 million, as reduced area was reported; and for Colombia, down 0.2 million tons to 1.7 million, mostly due to reduced area. Drought in parts of Central America trimmed corn production prospects slightly in Guatemala and Nicaragua. Small reductions are also made this month for Ethiopia, Madagascar, Angola, Australia, Georgia, Tanzania, North Korea, and Lesotho.
Increased corn production is forecast this month for the United States; for the EU, up 0.7 million tons to 56.6 million due to improved yield prospects for Hungary and Romania; for Malawi, up 0.7 million tons to 3.7 million due to reported increases in both area and yield; for Ukraine, up 0.5 million tons to 9.0 million, because of strong reported yields; and for Canada, up 0.3 million tons to 9.7 million, based on yield surveys by Statistics Canada. There were smaller increases for Mozambique, Uganda, Somalia, Benin, and Swaziland.
World barley production is projected up 4.4 million tons, more than offsetting the decline in corn of 1.5 million. The largest increase in barley production is for Russia, up 2.0 million tons to 18.0 million, based on yields reported from the Volga and Siberia. Volga yields were not hurt as much as expected by dryness, while growing and harvesting conditions in Siberia have been exceptionally good. Algeria’s barley production is revised up 0.7 million tons to 2.0 million, as exceptionally abundant rains encouraged a sharp area expansion and record yields. EU barley production is projected up 0.7 million tons to 61.5 million as increased production reported for France and Poland more than offset a reduction for Spain.
Barley production is boosted 0.3 million tons for Canada and 0.2 million for Australia. A late first frost helped barley harvest in Canada, while rains in southern and western Australia boosted production prospects. Smaller increases are estimated this month for Moldova and South Africa. Global oats and rye production increased slightly this month based on increased production of oats in Australia and oats and rye in the EU.