Foreign Corn Production Decline More Than Offsets U.S. Increase
09/15/2009 08:59AM
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World coarse grain production in 2009/10 is projected down 1.54 million tons this month to 1,090.0 million. Corn production shifted dramatically with increased U.S. production offset by reduced prospects in foreign countries. Oats prospects increased 0.5 million tons to 23.7 million because of a 0.3-million-ton increase for Canada and smaller increases for Belarus and the EU. Global barley production is projected up slightly this month to 142.9 million tons as a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine and smaller increases for the EU, Canada, and Belarus were mostly offset by a 1.0-million-ton decline for Russia, where harvest yields in the Volga Valley slumped. World sorghum production is projected slightly lower this month as dryness in Mexico has trimmed crop prospects. Global rye, millet, and mixed grain production prospects are nearly unchanged this month.
China’s corn production prospects for 2009/10 are reduced 2.5 million tons this month to 160.0 million. Drought has hurt corn production prospects across parts of Manchuria, including the leading corn provinces of Jilin and Liaoning. However, exceptionally good growing conditions in other regions are partly offsetting.
Brazil’s corn production prospects are cut 2.0 million tons this month to 52 million. The strong price of soybeans, compared with corn, is expected to encourage a shift from corn to soybean planted area in the south, especially in Parana. Soybeans have lower production costs and are less risky than corn, which is increasingly important because the strong Brazilian currency is squeezing farmer’s profit margins. The planting period for the main-season corn crop in the south is just beginning, and the recent shift in price incentives is likely to be crucial.
Argentina’s corn production is forecast down 1.0 million tons to 14.0 million. Relative prices and government policy are pushing producers to plant more soybeans instead of corn.
Canada’s corn crop is reduced 0.9 million tons this month to 9.4 million as surveys by Statistics Canada indicated that a cool growing season has reduced expected yields.
Kenya’s corn production is slashed 0.9 million tons to 1.8 million as a second year of drought has cut yield prospects and trimmed area.
EU corn production is down 0.3 million tons this month as reduced area in France and poor yield prospects in Italy more than offset increased production expected in Romania and Greece.
Serbia’s corn production prospects increased 0.4 million tons to 6.4 million as growing conditions have been mostly favorable.