World 2008/09 corn trade is projected up 0.7 million tons this month to 76.1 million. Since changes to forecast imports were mostly offsetting, the increase in world corn trade is based on prospects for exports and is accommodated by an increase in the “unaccounted” import category.
Corn exports are raised 0.5 million tons to 4.5 million for Ukraine and 0.4 million tons to 1.0 million for Russia. Supplies of corn in these countries are ample, and export prices are made attractive by generally favorable exchange rates. Based on the pace of corn shipments, Croatia’s exports are up 0.2 million tons, Australia is up million, and Chile, Tanzania, Pakistan, and Vietnam are increased slightly.
Corn export prospects for Brazil for October-September 2008/09 are reduced 0.5 million tons to 9.5 million. Port congestion and heavy shipments of soybeans receiving priority over corn exports may result in more local marketing year corn exports leaving Brazil after October 1, 2009. The local marketing year corn export forecast remains unchanged this month at 9.5 million tons.
Projected corn imports for Mexico are down 0.5 million tons this month to 7.0 million. Sluggish meat production prospects are limiting corn imports. Reduced feed use is cutting prospects for Indonesia’s corn imports 0.4 million tons to only 0.1 million. Thailand’s imports from neighboring countries have been slow, trimming forecast imports 0.1 million tons this month.
Reduced corn production this month supports increased imports for Chile and Iran, each forecast up 0.2 million tons this month, and for Vietnam, up 0.1 million. The strong pace of corn imports is boosting import prospects for Venezuela 0.2 million tons this month and supports small increases for Yemen and Tanzania.
U.S. October-September 2008/09 corn exports remain projected at 44.0 million tons this month (1.7 billion bushels for September-August). The pace of sales and shipments supports the forecast. Census corn exports for October 2008 through February 2009 were 16.7 million tons and grain inspections of corn in March reached 4.2 million, an increased pace. Corn shipments during the first half of the year nearly reached 21 million tons and have been stronger recently. As of April 2, 2009, outstanding export sales were 9.7 million tons, down sharply from the previous year’s exceptional pace, but fairly large compared with sales in most years. With reduced competition from Argentina’s drought-ravished corn crop in 2008/09, U.S. exports are expected to improve in the second half of the year. No significant changes were made this month to projected world 2008/09 barley, sorghum, oats, or rye trade.