SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Despite being touted as the wonder crop that could rev up biodiesel economics, energy analysts and even its most ardent proponents agree that using jatropha in biodiesel production is at least five to six years away. Some researchers claim jatropha is the most viable feedstock option for biodiesel.
They argue that it produces non-edible oil, can't be used as a food crop, can be grown in arid regions and doesn't result in land use conflicts that often plague other biodiesel feedstocks such as palm oil and rapeseed.
Even so, biodiesel experts acknowledge that the effectiveness of the crop as a feedstock to produce biodiesel has yet to be demonstrated as no commercial-scale operations have shown results yet due to jatropha's lengthy crop cycle.
India has been leading jatropha cultivation efforts with the government identifying as early as in 2003 the potential of the plant as a biodiesel source.
But the government delayed announcing any concrete policy until early this year when a national biodiesel mission was set up with the goal of putting huge swathes of marginal land into jatropha cultivation.
As a result, any large-scale plantations that are already underway are less than a year old. Currently, around 7.5 million jatropha saplings have even been planted along the country's railway tracks. And under the various initiatives by states and federal government, India may have around 3.1 million hectares under jatropha plantation by 2009.
Only Time Will Tell
But experts say that though there are a myriad of projects underway in many countries, particularly in India, it will be quite a while until these projects can produce a clearer picture of how best to exploit the plant's potential.
"There has not been enough work done to see the produce life cycle, the cost and what the yields are," said Peter Cockcroft, Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies.
Researchers from the Tata Energy and Resources Institute that is spearheading jatropha development in India concur. TERI research shows that once the jatropha saplings have been planted, it takes about two to three years before the plant starts seeding, and the seed yield reaches the maximum potential only after five to six years.
"Obviously even if the plantations were put in today, it will take five to six years for the produce volume to be known.
Whatever figures are coming in are from research and it can't be conclusive," K.S. Sethi, Fellow at TERI said. Several large scale projects are underway. Among these, TERI is advising BP PLC (BP), which is investing $9.42 million in a project in India focussing on jatropha cultivation.
Jatropha Output Dependent Upon Agro-techniques
What could also affect jatropha yield is the fact that the crop is seasonal and much of jatropha's success depends on agricultural techniques employed.
"You can go in for a high input model where irrigation infrastructure exists such as in the Western Godavari district of Andhra Pradesh in Southern India, or go for one in Rajasthan where the plantations will largely depend on rainfall for irrigation," Sethi said.
"Under the irrigated conditions, yield can be significantly improved as it fruits and seeds two times," compared with once-a-year in rain-fed conditions, Sethi added.
And at least two or three generations of crops will have to be grown before the best seed variety can be identified or a genetically-modified crop developed. "Once we are able to zero-in on the (plantation) models to be used, then scaling up the models will be easy," said Sethi.
-By Gomati Jagadeesan, Dow Jones Newswires; 65-64154063; gomati.jagadeesan@dowjones.com -Edited by Simon Hall