After two years of extremely dry conditions, the drought in Oklahoma, for the foreseeable future, has abated. Most of Oklahoma has received ten to twenty percent above normal precipitation in the last 90 days. In fact, locally heavy rains have made flooding a serious concern in several regions and the 2007 wheat harvest is struggling to get moving with persistent rainy conditions. However, cow-calf producers, for the most part, are enjoying the best forage and pond water conditions in many months and are not yet ready to complain about too much rain.
Cow-calf producers have a number of considerations for recovery from the drought and planning for the next couple of years. The first priority is or should be, for many producers, to assess forage conditions. Many pastures suffered in the drought and need time to recover. Producers should evaluate weed and brush control and especially fertility. Although fertilizer is expensive, many pastures need time and nutrients to recover and producers should carefully manage stocking rates to allow pastures to recuperate. Producers are also looking to replenishing seriously depleted hay supplies. On May 1, Oklahoma hay stocks were down 27 percent from last year’s already depleted levels and were down a whopping 71 percent from 2006 levels.
The cow herd likewise needs time to recuperate from the drought. Not only are cow numbers down in Oklahoma but very likely productivity has been reduced as well by the drought. The 2007 calf crop may well be smaller and even the 2008 calf crop may show some lingering effects of the drought on cow herd productivity. Producers need to evaluate the nutritional and reproductive status of cows and bulls to ensure productivity this next year. Early pregnancy checking may be advisable to identify lowered productivity sooner. Financial recovery from the drought depends on rebuilding herd productivity quickly.
The one positive effect of the drought is that herd expansion will be delayed and muted thereby extending cyclically lowered levels of cattle production and supporting generally strong calf prices for another couple of years at least. Reductions in productivity and the suspension of heifer retention in 2006 ensure that feeder cattle supplies will remain tight in 2007. Better forage conditions will lead to resumption of heifer retention in the second half of 2007. After assessing forage production and current herd productivity, producers will once again be asking themselves how much expansion and how best to accomplish it. Breeding animal values are already increasing in Oklahoma and the question of how high is too high will soon be on producers’ minds. The timing of cyclical expansion is key to how long good prices will last. And there are a host of other factors to watch as well, including grain prices, beef demand, trade and farm policy. The question “how the cattle cycle is proceeding” will have to be revisited later but suffice it so say that there will be herd expansion underway in Oklahoma for the remainder of 2007.
Source: Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University