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Livestock Highlights: Brazilian Beef, Avian Flu, US Retail Meat

02/13/2009 10:13AM

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CME Livestock Bulls Set For Eventual Rebound In Meat Demand

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. consumers looking to satisfy their carnivorous cravings after the economy eventually heals will be greeted by less red meat, which bullish Chicago Mercantile Exchange livestock traders are betting will be a boon for futures and related cash cattle and hog prices. "Supply is a lot easier to sink our teeth into because we have numbers to back it up and guys are building that into the deferred hog contracts right now," a brokerage firm's hog trader said. "But, the economy is really clouding the demand side of the equation moving forward."

US Retail Meat: Grocers Hope To Boost Sales Over Valentines

KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--Grocers across the U.S. are hoping to boost sales from their meat cases and elsewhere in the stores over the Valentines Day holiday weekend. Some of the advertising space normally devoted to meat and poultry was used for flowers, candy and cards for the holiday instead. Normally, many families and couples celebrate Valentines Day by dining out. While many may still do that this year, the weak economy and tightened food budgets might cause more of them to prepare a nice meal at home instead at less

cost.

CFIA Confirms 2nd Avian Flu Case In British Columbia

WINNIPEG (Dow Jones)--An H5 type of avian influenza virus has been found in a second commercial poultry operation in southern British Columbia, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency confirmed late Wednesday. The infected flock was discovered through surveillance initiated after a low-pathogenic, H5N2 type of avian influenza was found Jan. 24 in a commercial poultry flock in British Columbia.

STORIES OF INTEREST:

Beef Sales Find Support In Effective Health Messages - Study

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Macroeconomic pressure shoulders most of the blame for slowed beef demand, but bolstering beef's nutrition, safety and convenience messages can add measurable support to the beef business, according to a new study. Though prices plays an integral role in beef sales, modest fluctuations have small effects on beef demand, the beef industry should focus on ensuring that consumers do not have non-price reasons to shift away from beef consumption," said Ted Schroeder, agricultural economist at Kansas State

University.

Brazil Jan Beef Exports Down 34% To 81,812 Tons - Abiec

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's beef exports in January declined 34% from the same period last year to 81,812 metric tons due to a fall-off in demand in key markets like Russia, the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association, or Abiec, said Thursday. Beef exports should remain steady in 2009 compared to 2008, Abiec said. Brazil shipped 2.1 million tons of beef internationally last year.

THE MARKETS:

Livestock Outlook: Hogs, Live Cattle Mixed

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Mercantile Exchange hogs could open mixed Friday with an undertone of weakness, according to analysts and brokers. Bullish market factors may include potential follow-through buying and no-worse-than-steady cash hog prices expectations. Pork bellies may open mostly firm on carryover-buying and steady fresh belly quotes on Thursday at $75 per hundredweight. CME live cattle could open mixed on position squaring before the extended holiday weekend and cash cattle price anticipation amid sputtering

beef demand and fading beef packer profits. Feeder cattle could open mixed on follow-through selling and bearish board premiums to CMEs feeder cattle index versus potential short covering and underlying chart support.

US Cash Cattle Pre-Open: Light Sales In Nebraska Thurs

KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--Light sales of fed cattle were reported in Nebraska Thursday but no trades occurred in Kansas or Texas/western Oklahoma. The Nebraska sales totaled approximately 10,000 head at mostly $131 per hundredweight on a dressed basis, generally steady with the bulk of sales last week. A few cattle traded at $130 and $132, analysts and feedyard managers said. Additional and more active trading is expected to develop later this morning or early afternoon. Buyer inquiry in Texas/western Oklahoma and Kansas

Thursday and early Friday was reported slow, as it has been all week. Trading will likely hold off until late in the day. Sellers are trying to get at least $1 more for their cattle this week but packers are reluctant to pay any more, analysts said. It could be a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers over prices that may delay the trade once again until late in the day, they said. The majority of the trading in the past two weeks occurred late in the day on Friday.

US Cash Hogs Pre-Open: Steady To Higher On Early-Week Demand

KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--Midwest direct hog prices Friday are called steady to as much as $1 per hundredweight higher on buying interest for deliveries early next week. Some of the pork processing plants have enough hogs through the middle of next week but others are a few loads short for Monday and Tuesday, according to livestock dealers and market managers. Offerings from producers are expected to be limited throughout the day, which is typical for a Friday. Also, since the market has rebounded the past two days, producers are

reluctant to sell additional hogs in hopes that the strength prices will carry over into next week as well.

-By Curt Thacker, Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5178; curt.thacker@dowjones.com

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