Market Outlook

Hog Outlook: Pork Cutout $2.54 Lower Than Last Week

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:25:50 GMT

The November USDA estimate of the 2009 corn crop is for a yield of 162.9 bushels per acre, down from the October estimate of 164.2 bushels per acre. This will still be a new record high for corn yield if it comes true.

Cattle Outlook: Lower Retail Beef Prices, Neutral COF Report

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:22:09 GMT

Beef and veal exports for September were 20 percent below a year earlier. The biggest decline by country was South Korea, Vietnam and Mexico. Beef imports in September were down 4.7 percent from a year earlier.

Dairy Situation & Outlook: Milk Prices Continue Upward Trend

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:28:25 GMT

Milk prices continue their upward trend of improvement. The Class III price, which was $9.97 for both June and July improved to 12.82 for October and will be around $14.05 for November. The U.S.

Gasoline Price Drops Again

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:16:10 GMT

For the second consecutive week, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline decreased. The average slipped about four cents to $2.63 per gallon, $0.56 above the price a year ago.

Pressures On Fuel Ethanol Production Capacity

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:06:51 GMT

Capacity to produce fuel ethanol from corn nearly tripled between January 2006 and January 2009. However, over the past 18 months, a combination of surplus production capacity, the decline of gasoline prices from their mid-2008 peak level, and high corn prices that boosted producers’ input costs have resulted in a sharp decline in ethanol margins.

Roberts Report: Vomitoxin Affecting The Corn Market, Low Demand For Beef This Holiday Season

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:19:55 GMT

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) finished up again on Monday. DEC’09 corn futures finished at $4.022/bu; up 11.75¢/bu and 16.25¢/bu higher than last Monday. The MAY’10 contract closed at $4.274; up 11.75¢/bu and 17.25¢/bu higher than last report.

Modest Upturn In Hog Prices, Wholesale Pork Prices

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:50:18 GMT

A slightly smaller 2009 spring pig crop and continued sharply lower live imports of Canadian swine are likely causing fourth-quarter hog prices to strengthen at a time
of year when prices typically achieve their annual lows.

Cattle Update: Placements, Inventories, Crop Progress, & Buyouts Give Conflicting Signals

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:23:00 GMT

According to the November 10, 2009 National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress report, winter wheat seeding and emergence rates are several points behind year-earlier status, but, with dry weather, are rapidly catching up in most areas, and general crop conditions are still considered to be excellent relative to normal conditions.

Grain Outlook: No Suprises In The November WASDE

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:18:12 GMT

The USDA November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report told market participants what they already knew – we have lots of wheat, corn and soybeans.

Natural Gas Outlook: Prices Decrease Sharply, Storage Reaches Record High

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:44:52 GMT

At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices moved lower as the threat of an interruption in supplies from the hurricane passed. The futures contract for December delivery decreased by $0.22 on the report week to $4.503 per MMBtu.

Hog Outlook: Average Barrow & Gilt Carcass Weights Up One Pound From Last Year

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:40:44 GMT

Cattle Outlook: Record High Corn Yield, Beef Prices Down

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:38:30 GMT

The November USDA estimate of the 2009 corn crop is for a yield of 162.9 bushels per acre, down from the October estimate of 164.2 bushels per acre. This is still a record high for the corn yield.

Feed Grain Production Prospects Lowered In 2009/10

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:06:38 GMT

U.S. feed grain production for 2009/10 is forecast at 343.7 million metric tons, down from 346.2 million last month but up from 325.9 million in 2008/09.

Lower Yields Reduce Corn Crop, Still Second Largest Ever

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:56:01 GMT

Because of slightly lower corn yields, U.S. corn production is forecast at 12.921 billion bushels this month.

U.S. Average Gasoline Price Slips

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 19:32:21 GMT

For the first time since October 5, 2009, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline decreased, slipping three cents to $2.67 per gallon, but staying $0.44 above a year ago. Prices declined across all the regions.

This Week In Petroleum: Saudi Aramco Announces New U.S. Pricing Formula

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 19:25:03 GMT

The U.S. imported slightly more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day from Saudi Arabia during the first 8 months of 2009. Despite a decline of more than 33 percent compared to the same period in 2008.

Natural Gas Outlook: Inventories Up, Price To Increase

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:05:47 GMT

EIA projects total natural gas consumption to decline by 1.9 percent in 2009 to 62.2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day and by another 1.1 percent in 2010.

U.S. Crude Oil Outlook: Consumption To Decline, Production To Increase

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:01:37 GMT

EIA forecasts total consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum products to decline by about 780,000 bbl/d (4.0 percent) in 2009 compared with 2008. During the first half of the year, consumption declined by almost 1.25 million bbl/d (6.3 percent) from the same period last year, one of the steepest declines on record.

World Oil Outlook: Consumption To Increase, Inventory Concerns

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:52:09 GMT

Sustained economic growth in China and other Asian countries is contributing to the beginnings of a rebound in world oil consumption, leading EIA to revise its expectations for world oil consumption upwards for the second consecutive month.

Roberts Report: Feeder Cattle Began Strong But Turned South On Surging Corn Prices

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:22:01 GMT

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) finished up on Monday rallying late in the session. DEC’09 corn futures finished at $3.860/bu; up 19.0¢/bu and 3.75+¢/bu higher than last Monday. The MAY’10 contract closed at $4.102; up 19.25¢/bu and 5.75¢/bu higher than last report.

Nevil Speer, MMP: Cattle Feeders Create Some Gap...But Don't Get Caught Looking Back

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:41:11 GMT

Finally some reprieve. October proved friendly to the fed market which showed signs of life during the month.

Cattle Outlook: Consumer Beef Demand Down, Calf & Steer Prices Decrease

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:32:39 GMT

Beef production for January-September was down 3.2 percent. The number of cattle slaughtered during this nine month period was down 4.2 percent. Therefore, cattle weights were one percent heavier than for this time in 2008.

Hog Outlook: Pork Production Down Due To Smaller Exports

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:28:07 GMT

Pork production for January-September was down 1.5 percent from a year earlier. The number of hogs slaughtered was down 2.6 percent. Therefore hog weights were 1.1 pounds heavier this year than in 2008.

Natural Gas Outlook: December Contracts Fall 7 Percent

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:18:08 GMT

Natural gas spot prices fell over the week at most market locations, declining on average 16 cents per million Btu (MMBtu). Decreases ranged between 2 cents and 77 cents per MMBtu. In the few trading locations where prices rose, increases were modest, ranging between 1 and 4 cents per MMBtu.

Proved Reserves Of Crude Oil Fall In 2008, Reflecting Low End-Of-Year Prices

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:11:03 GMT

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Proved Reserves, 2008 reports that proved reserves of crude oil fell by more than 10 percent in 2008, primarily because of low end-of-year prices used to estimate proved reserves, even though discoveries of crude oil rose for the third year in a row.

In The Cattle Markets: Impact Of Southeastern Rains

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:25:14 GMT

The Southern US has been inundated with rain over the past two months. The Mississippi River corridor has been particularly hard hit by the excessive rains.

Roberts Report: Higher Corn Prices To Put A Lid Feeder Cattle Prices

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:11:28 GMT

Live cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) were up on Monday. Short covering, a weaker U.S. dollar, higher cash cattle, and gains in the Dow-Jones and other outside markets were supportive.

Purdue Outlook: Harvest To Accelerate

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:21:46 GMT

The late planted and late maturing corn and soybean crops of 2009 have also experienced one of the slowest harvest rates in modern history. As of October 25, the USDA reported only 20 percent of the corn crop and 44 percent of the soybean crop had been harvested.

Grain Outlook: Fall Harvest 2009 - A Muddy Slog

Sat, 31 Oct 2009 21:13:19 GMT

On Monday, October 26th, the USDA released the latest Crop Progress report which was notable for the lack harvest progress. It was not unexpected, given persistent, harvest-delaying rainfall across the eastern half of the United States, but only 14 percent of the nation’s soybean crop could be harvested during the previous week, leaving approximately 43 million acres yet to cut.

Cattle Outlook: Beef Prices Improve, Slaughter Up

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:16:08 GMT

According to the price data available, the consumer demand for beef is down 2.3 percent and for pork, up 4.0 percent.

Hog Outlook: Live Demand Down, Pork Cutouts Up

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:10:02 GMT

Based on the available price data, pork demand at the consumer level continues to hold well for January-September with a four percent gain in our demand index.

Natural Gas Outlook: Futures Prices Drop 16 Percent, Storage Sets New Record Highs

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 18:08:55 GMT

Natural gas prices posted decreases at both the spot and futures markets since last Wednesday. Spot prices fell at virtually all market locations in the lower 48 States, with decreases ranging between 6 and 46 cents per million Btu (MMBtu).

Gasoline & Diesel Prices Still Climbing

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:00:16 GMT

The U.S. average price for regular gasoline increased for the third consecutive week, shooting up a dime to $2.67 per gallon. For the first time since October 20, 2008, the national average price is now higher than it was the year before.

This Week In Petroleum: Changing Distillate Export Patterns

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:57:05 GMT

Distillate (including diesel) is the second largest petroleum product consumed in the United States, used for everything from fuel for trucks and trains to residential heating and even a small amount of power generation.

Roberts Report: December Live Cattle Close Down .25, Corn Futures Drop Almost 20 Cents

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:59:14 GMT

Live cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) were off on Monday. The OCT’09LC contract, scheduled to expire on Friday, closed off $0.225/cwt at $86.125/cwt. DEC’09LC futures closed at $87.150/cwt; down $0.250/cwt.

In The Cattle Markets: Feeding Losses & Fall Calf Prices

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:16:15 GMT

As I look at feeder cattle markets across the country and as I have opportunities to talk with cattle producers, it becomes very apparent that feeder cattle prices have dropped sharply and unexpectedly.

Cattle Market Notes: Fed Market Shows Signs Of A Rally

Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:52:51 GMT

The fed cattle market has finally begun to shows signs of a rally, stringing together two consecutive weeks of higher prices.

National Feeder Cattle Report

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:53:52 GMT

Compared to last week, feeder and stocker cattle were steady to 2.00 higher in both auctions and direct trading.

Hog Outlook: Live Demand Up, Pork Cutouts Down

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:47:09 GMT

The $70-plus summer 2010 futures for lean hogs may be influencing producers to slow or stop the decline in the breeding herd.

Cattle Outlook: Lighter Weight Placements, Wholesale Beef Prices Increase

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:42:26 GMT

The Cattle on Feed report for October 1 came in very close to the trade estimates. The on-feed number according to USDA was 100.6 percent of a year earlier.

Natural Gas Outlook: Futures Prices Higher, Storage Reaches Record-Setting Level

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 18:08:43 GMT

Natural gas in storage was a record-setting 3,734 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of October 16, which is about 13 percent above the 5-year average (2004-2008), following an implied net injection of 18 Bcf during the report week.

This Week In Petroleum: International Oil Data Gaps

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:45:04 GMT

In a supplement to the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyzed the inherent volatility of energy prices by looking at the options market.