Corn Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -1336
Overnight Trade: Z +7 Change: +7000
Opening Calls: 5-7 Higher
The corn saw follow through buying overnight following yesterday’s strong technical performance. A positive close today would begin to turn short term technical indicators back up, but from a long term perspective, one should still look at selling rallies. A move above $3.50 in the December contract would be an excellent selling opportunity. Export sales were adequate with 541,200 MT of old crop and 292,500 MT of new crop sales. We are running out of time in the crop year, but USDA may still be too low with the old crop export estimate.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -63378
Long Term: Down Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +4 3/4 KC: Z +3 1/4
Opening Calls: 3-5 Higher
The wheat was higher overnight, but it is still apparent that the wheat is the weak link. Export sales dropped off from last week to 479,100 MT. That total is adequate, but definitely not high enough to generate any speculative buying interest. If the corn can continue to bounce for a day or two, then the wheat can too, but there will be very strong overhead resistance at the $5.40 level in the September KW.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 57078
Long Term: Up Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: X +17 1/4
Opening Calls: 15-20 Higher
The November soybeans made a new high for the move overnight and look to be headed for a test of the June high, which is near $11.00. Export sales were great again with 422,800 MT of old crop and 729,200 MT of new crop sales. Demand is still very good and with the new crop production estimate shrinking, the new crop fundamentals continue to get more bullish.
Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Calls: 10-25 Higher
Live cattle futures closed higher to sharply higher on Wednesday, led by better cash trade potential and supportive data out of the mornings USDA supply/demand tables. Third quarter beef production is now expected to fall 200 million pounds below year ago levels. The August contract led the surge higher after seeing one of the major packers aggressively take deliveries at prices well above last week’s cash. Some light trade @ $132 in the north by regional packers is better than week ago trade.
Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Wednesday, with support from the live cattle and selling from a reversal higher in the corn market. Overnight saw more of the same, with firm live cattle prices and follow through buying in the corn market. Feeders are expected start on a mixed basis this morning. Cash index levels are falling modestly, in line with seasonal patterns. Solid support at this week and last week’s lows should hold in the feeders into week’s end.