Corn Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -8336
Overnight Trade: Z -1 1/4 Change: +1000
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower
There were numerous changes to the corn supply and demand tables this morning. Old crop exports were increased and ending stocks were cut, which was expected. New crop planted acreage was unchanged, which was a surprise, but yield was increased to 159.5 causing a large jump in production. New crop feed and ethanol usage was increased, as was the export estimate, so ending stocks were lower than the average trade guess at 1.621 billion even though production was higher than expected. There is nothing bullish about the report, but it wasn’t shockingly bearish either. December corn will test the July low.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -65378
Long Term: Down Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -3 1/2 KC: Z -3 1/2
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower
There were no major surprises in the wheat numbers. Production and ending stocks were raised. Wheat fundamentals are bearish, but we already knew that. Since the wheat won’t be getting much help from the corn it looks very bleak. Plan on the down trend continuing.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 55078
Long Term: Up Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: X Unch
Opening Calls: Steady to 2 Higher
The soybean numbers weren’t as bullish as they could have been. Old crop ending stocks were left unchanged at 110 million. Crush, exports, and seed usage were increased, but were offset by a cut in residual usage. New crop production was cut by a combination of higher acreage and lower yield. New crop ending stocks were cut to 210 million due to the production cut. New crop crush and exports were both reduced. This report won’t have much impact and traders will be back to focusing on demand and the Indian monsoon.
Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Calls: 25-50 Higher
Live cattle futures closed mostly lower on Tuesday, with the lead August contract the one positive of the day. Overnight strength developed across the board in the electronic trade, with rumors circulating that one of the major packers was claiming the deliveries after just one day. Beef prices are supportive as well, with higher prices and better movement. Traders will be watching this morning’s USDA supply/demand report for further direction. Bull spreads could continue working short term.
Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle futures closed .30-.60 lower on Tuesday, with weaker live cattle and higher corn leading the decent. Today’s action in the feeders will be highly effected by this morning grain report. Lower corn prices will likely provide solid support in the feeders. A rally in corn would need improved live cattle trade to avoid further selling in the feeders.