Corn
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Overnight Trade: N +4
Opening Calls: 4-6 Higher
Yesterday, corrective action in the Dollar Index lead to corrective action in the corn. Overnight the Dollar was weaker, therefore the corn was stronger. What it all amounts to for the corn is pre-report consolidation. The crop condition numbers were uneventful with corn falling 1 point to 69% Good to Excellent. This is much better than last year, which makes it unlikely that we see a significant yield reduction in tomorrow’s report.
Wheat
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +6 KC: N +5 1/2
Opening Calls: 5-7 Higher
Wheat was the downside leader yesterday, but made a small bounce overnight. The July KW has found support just below the $6.50 level, but right now it looks like a move down to the $6.25 level is likely. The market probably won’t get much help out of the wheat supply and demand numbers, so how far the wheat falls will be determined by the Dollar and the reaction to the corn numbers. Look for two sided trade today.
Soybeans
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Overnight Trade: N +7 1/4
Opening Calls: 7-9 Higher
The bull spreads worked very well yesterday. There is no new reason, just the fear of shortages in the old crop and the fear of record acres in the new crop. All contracts were higher overnight and the July contract made yet another new high for the move. It is still a long way to $13.25, but at the moment it looks inevitable.
Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures came under some more selling pressure to start the week, led lower by fresh selling in deferred contracts and liquidation in the June ahead of first notice day for deliveries. Cutout values were mixed, with choice up 1.04 and select .69 lower. The widening of the spread in favor of the choice cuts is usually positive to the market. Total loads for a Monday were considered positive as well. Overnight trade was fairly light but leaning towards a positive opening in the front three contract months.
Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle spent most of the day on Monday trading narrowly on one side or the other of unchanged, before a late round of selling led the market to moderate losses into the close. The cash index was off .01 for the day and appears to be stabilizing near current levels. Cash remains a premium to the board price. Open interest was up on the break Monday, indicating continued willingness by new sellers at current price levels. Overnight activity was at lower prices on follow through selling and a rise in corn values in the night session.