LONDON (Dow Jones)--The U.K. is set to become a permanent net importer of crude oil and refined products in 2007 - three years earlier than the U.K.'s Department of Trade and Industry expects, according to the U.K.-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre Monday.
Depletion rates of the U.K.'s oil and gas reserves in the North Sea are occurring faster than expected and production coming onstream in the next few years from new fields won't be enough to compensate, said ODAC director Douglas Low.
"There's a slight possibility we might become a net exporter for a few months next year," Low told Dow Jones Newswires.
"But definitely we will be a permanent net importer from the end of 2007 - three years ahead of the DTI's forecast," he said, adding the U.K. has already been a net importer of crude and products since January of this year.
According to the DTI, the U.K. was a net oil importer of 1.6 million tons in the second quarter of 2006 compared with being a net oil exporter by 1.1 million tons in the same period in 2005.
However, a DTI spokesman said this was partly due to a fire last August at the Schiehallion oil field in the North Sea which knocked out 120,000 barrels a day for most of the month, and several other factors which helped push the U.K.'s oil output to its lowest level for 16 years.
"The DTI expects the U.K. to return to being a net exporter in 2007 before becoming a permanent net importer in 2010," DTI spokesman Nick Turton said.
He added the Buzzard oil field should offset any losses from declining North Sea oil output from older fields between 2007 and 2010.
According to DTI data, U.K. North Sea oil production declined 218,000 b/d in 2003. Since 2004, the depletion rate has remained mostly steady at 230,000 b/d.
Source: Alex MacDonald and Selina Williams, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9262, selina.williams@dowjones.com