World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates: Meat Production For 2010 Higher
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production for 2009 is reduced as lower beef output more than offsets higher pork and poultry production. The beef production forecast is reduced for 2009 due to lower expected feedlot placements and slightly lighter average carcass weights. The Cattle report, to be released on July 24, will provide an indication of breeding herd retention and the number of cattle outside feedlots. The pork production forecast is raised due to larger-than-expected second quarter slaughter and heavier carcass weights. However, lower June 1 inventories result in a small reduction in the second-half 2009 pork production forecast. The broiler production forecast is raised as second- and third-quarter output is expected to be slightly higher.
Meat production for 2010 is raised as higher pork and broiler production outweigh slightly lower beef production. The recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slower-than-expected decline in farrowing intentions which, coupled with continued gains in pigs per litter, results in larger supplies of slaughter hogs in 2010. In addition, lower forecast feed prices compared with last month supports heavier hog carcass weights. Broiler production forecasts for 2010 are also raised as lower feed prices are expected to aid producer returns. Turkey and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Turkey export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are reduced largely because of expected lower shipments to Mexico. Export forecasts of other meats are unchanged. The beef import forecast is raised fractionally for 2009 on stronger second-quarter shipments to date. Other import forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are unchanged from last month.
Price forecasts for 2009 are lowered for hogs, generally reflecting a higher production forecast. Cattle and broiler forecasts are unchanged. Egg prices in 2009 are forecast lower on softer demand. For 2010, higher forecast pork production is expected to weigh on supplies and price forecasts are reduced. Prices for cattle and broilers are unchanged. Egg price forecasts are reduced as the current market weakness is expected to carry into 2010.
The milk production forecast is raised fractionally for 2009 as the reduction in cow numbers is slightly slower than expected. Milk production for 2010 is unchanged. Imports for 2009 on a skim-solids basis are forecast lower; the commercial export forecast is unchanged from last month. Net removals are adjusted for both higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) sales to the CCC and product exports under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP). Cheese, butter, and NDM price forecasts are lowered as supplies are large but whey prices are forecast higher. For 2009 and 2010, Class III prices are reduced as lower cheese price forecasts more than offset higher whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is reduced in line with lower butter and NDM prices in both 2009 and 2010. The all milk price is forecast at $11.85 to $12.15 per cwt for 2009 and $14.85 to $15.85 for 2010.