The 2009/10 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and use as lower production more than offsets higher beginning stocks and reduced export prospects outweigh expected gains in domestic use.Total production is projected at 2,026 million bushels, down 19 percent from last year on reduced area and lower expected yields.The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 20 percent with sharply lower yields expected in the Southern Plains on extended dryness and early April freeze damage.Spring wheat production is also expected lower with less intended acreage as reported in the Prospective Plantings and significant planting delays, especially in North Dakota and Minnesota where yields are expected below trend levels.Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 524 million bushels, down 17 percent from 2008/09, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and trend yields adjusted for late seeding in the Northern Plains.U.S. wheat supplies are projected down 4 percent despite the highest carryin since 2002/03.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2009/10 is projected down 4 percent as lower exports and feed and residual use more than offset higher expected food use.Food use is projected at 955 million bushels, up 33 million bushels from the revised projection for 2008/09 as flour extraction rates fall to more normal levels in 2009/10.Feed and residual is projected at 240 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from the 2008/09 projection.Exports are projected at 900 million bushels, down 11 percent from this month’s higher projection for 2008/09 as large global supplies limit export opportunities.Despite lower expected use and higher beginning stocks, ending stocks are projected down 5 percent at 637 million bushels.The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.70 to $5.70 per bushel, well below the record $6.85 for 2008/09.
Global wheat production for 2009/10 is projected at 657.6 million tons, down 4 percent from last year’s record, but still the second largest if realized.Reduced output in major exporting countries such as EU-27, Ukraine, Russia, and Canada are only partly offset by increases in Argentina and Australia.Despite reduced area projected for Argentina, trend yields for 2009/10 allow for a significant recovery from last year’s drought-reduced crop.A recovery from last year’s drought in North Africa and much of the Middle East boosts production prospects in this region supporting world production.Production is projected slightly lower for Brazil and India, while China’s production is unchanged.
Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are both projected lower reflecting reduced demand in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.World wheat consumption is projected to increase 1 percent, but world wheat feeding is projected 3 percent lower with reduced overall output and less low quality wheat expected from the Black Sea region.Global stocks are projected at 181.9 million tons, up 9 percent from 2008/09 and the highest in 8 years.