World wheat trade in 2008/09 (July-June trade year) is forecast down 0.6 million this month but is still expected to reach a record 123.7 million tons. This is still up 7 percent from the level of world trade estimated for the 2 previous years.
Wheat imports projected for Vietnam and Malaysia were each trimmed 0.2 million tons this month because of a slower-than-expected pace of purchases.
Argentina’s wheat export prospects are cut 0.5 million tons this month to 5.8 million due to reduced production. Australia’s exports are also trimmed 0.5 million tons this month. While Australia’s production is unchanged this month, quality losses caused by rain during harvest are expected to limit export prospects. Malaysia’s flour export prospects were trimmed slightly. These declines were partly offset by increased prospects for Canada’s wheat exports, up 0.5 million tons to 19.0 million. Increased production is expected to boost Canada’s share of world wheat trade.
U.S. wheat exports in 2008/09 are projected to reach 27.0 million tons, unchanged this month and 22 percent lower than a year earlier. Census exports for July through October 2008 are 14.9 million tons, down only 14 percent compared with those of a year ago, but grain inspections for November were 2.1 million tons, down 28 percent from 2007. At the end of November 2008, outstanding export sales were 4.6 million tons, less than half year-earlier levels. U.S. exports are expected to face stiff competition for the remainder of 2008/09 from large supplies of competitors’ wheat, especially from the EU-27, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine.
Source: USDA