Black Sea regional wheat and coarse grain exports are forecast to set a record 36 million tons in 2008/09. However, the transportation infrastructure inside Russia and Ukraine could present some limitations on exports from the region, as Kazakhstan also ships through these countries.
In 2002/03, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan combined for a total of 33 million tons of exports, most of which was shipped from Black Sea ports. Although the 5 years since have provided a significant amount of investment in the Black Sea port facilities, the region’s interior transportation infrastructure has been only modestly improved. Some of the limiting factors include availability of railcars during the key exporting season from July through October, quality of secondary roads, and limited storage facilities in the interior. Increased flexibility especially regarding overland flour trade and usage of Baltic ports may help these countries, particularly Kazakhstan, keep trade moving despite infrastructure shortfalls.
PRICES:
Domestic: HRW was down $30 and SRW was down $40 taking it to $250/ton, a level not seen since last August. SWW was up $60 for the month after a sliding in April, at its current level of $405 it is again at its end of March level.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2008/2009
Selected Exporters
Ø Canada is down 500,000 tons to 16.5 million on expectations of slightly lower exportable supply in the new trade year.
Ø Syria is down 200,000 tons to 100,000 based on continued reports of drought. impacted crop.
Ø Ukraine is up 1.0 million tons to a record 7.0 million based on larger crop prospects and expected regional demand.
Ø United States is up 1.0 million tons to 27 million as more early season exports are expected as well as improved crop prospects.
Selected Importers
Ø Afghanistan is up 700,000 tons to 1.3 million because of smaller domestic supply.
Ø Syria is up 200,000 tons to 1.0 million based on lowered domestic supply prospects.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2007/2008
Selected Exporters
Ø Australia is down 500,000 tons to 7.0 million because of a slow shipment pace in the final quarter of the trade year.
Ø Canada is up 1.0 million tons to 16.0 million because of strong shipments.
Ø EU-27 is up 500,000 tons to 9.5 million based on export licenses.
Ø Ukraine is up 1.0 million tons to 1.7 million because of a surge of shipments since the lifting of the export quota.
Ø United States is down 500,000 tons to 35.0 million as late season shipments have slowed substantially from their earlier pace.
Selected Importers
North Africa and Middle Eastern importers, Jordan, Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco, are up a combined 900,000 tons as shipments to the area have increased substantially in the final quarter of the trade year.
Source: USDA