World Wheat Production Up Following Latest Harvest Updates
09/15/2009 10:22AM
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World wheat production in 2009/10 is forecast at 663.7 million tons, up 4.4 million this month. Half of the increase has occurred in the EU-27, where wheat production is forecast up 2.2 million tons to reach 138.5 million. While the wheat harvest is largely finished in the Northern Hemisphere, statistical agencies of individual countries are revising their production numbers. The largest increase is in France, where late-season rainfall during the grain filling stage substantially improved yields. The latest harvest reports suggested a 1.6-million-ton increase in wheat production to 39.4 million tons. In Denmark, wheat area is revised up 0.15 million hectares, leading to a 0.9-million-ton increase in production to 5.6 million. At the same time, the first estimate from the Ministry of Agriculture in Germany showed that previous harvest reports were overstated, as wheat yields in northern Germany were affected by dryness in spring and summer and delayed harvesting in August 2008. The wheat production estimate for Germany is lowered 1.4 million tons to 25.1 million, which is still 1.4 million tons above the last 5-year-average. Small changes-0.1-0.3 million tons-are made for the Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Spain, Hungary, Greece, Belgium, Lithuania, and United Kingdom. Less-than-0.1-million-ton changes are made for Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Netherlands, Portugal, and Slovakia. Small changes are also made for Georgia and Serbia, which are not members of the EU-27.
Wheat production in Russia is raised 1.0 million tons this month, as wheat area is revised up 0.65 million hectares to 28.75 million-the highest area since 1982. It is worth mentioning that in the early 2000s, Russian wheat area increased by 25 percent, or 5.75 million hectares, and keeps growing, as indicated by reports of winter wheat sowing, which in the fall of 2009 is expected to be higher than a year before. In both Ukraine and Kazakhstan, wheat production is up 0.5 million tons this month, reflecting higher reported yields. Yields are also higher than expected in Belarus, where reports indicate a much smaller gap between this year’s harvest and last year’s record crop. Wheat production in Belarus is up 0.3 million tons to 1.7 million. South African wheat production is also up 0.3 million tons to 2.0 million, reflecting good crop conditions in the Western Cape Province, and the first wheat-production estimate by South Africa's National Crop Estimates Committee (NCEC).
In the Southern Hemisphere, wheat prospects are lowered further for Argentina, down 0.5 million tons to 8.0 million, following a 0.15-million-hectare reduction in projected wheat area. Planting is over for most of the country, and additional wheat sowing is unlikely. This is because of sliding wheat prices and the government’s wheat export policies, which could motivate farmers to switch to planting soybeans. Slightly lower projected yields are attributed to continued dryness and high temperatures in the central areas of the country. Brazil wheat production is reduced by 0.2 million tons to 5.5 million. In Parana, the main wheat-producing region in Brazil, the wheat harvest has just started. Yields in that area are expected to be lower due to excessive rains and very high humidity that resulted in wheat fungus diseases. In Paraguay, wheat production is increased by 0.27 million tons to 0.9 million. Planted wheat area is adjusted up 0.25 million hectares to 0.55 million, a historical record for the country. The area increase reflects farmers’ hope that they could export some of their wheat, despite its low quality, an opportunity presented by Argentina’s drought and export restrictions.