Fiscal 2015 agricultural exports are projected at $144.5 billion, down $8 billion from the revised $152.5 billion forecast for fiscal 2014. Oilseeds and products are down $5.1 billion as a result of lower expected soybean and meal prices. Grain and feed exports are down $4.9 billion from fiscal 2014 on both lower export volumes for corn and wheat and expected lower unit values. Cotton exports are forecast down $600 million due to lower expected prices. Exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products are down $500 million. Horticultural exports are forecast up $2.9 billion to a record $37.0 billion, and, if realized, will be the first time exports of horticultural products are greater than exports of grain and feed products. Agricultural exports to China are forecast down $3.0 billion from fiscal 2014, but China is expected to remain the top U.S. market for agricultural products. Exports to Russia are projected to fall $800 million to total $400 million in fiscal 2015 as a result of trade restrictions against the United States. Russia’s share of U.S. agricultural exports would decline from 0.8 percent in 2014 to about 0.3 percent in 2015.

U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at a record $117 billion in fiscal 2015, $7.5 billion higher than in fiscal 2014. Increases in import value are expected for most products in 2015, with the largest gains in horticultural products, sugar and tropical products, and livestock products. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is expected to fall by $15.5 billion in fiscal 2015, to $27.5 billion.

This would be the smallest surplus since 2009. For fiscal 2014, the record $152.5 billion forecast for exports is up $3.0 billion from last quarter’s forecast, and imports are down $1 billion to $109.5 billion.