Global wheat output should stay nearly flat in 2012 while the world's corn harvest will rise 1.5 percent, due notably to a 14 percent jump in U.S. corn production, analyst AgResource said on Wednesday.
In its first estimates for world wheat supply and balance in 2012/2013 given at the Global Grain conference in Geneva, the U.S analyst put the world's wheat output at 682.6 million tonnes against 683.3 million this year.
The European Union wheat crop would fall to 135.4 million tonnes, the Russian one drop to 57 million tonnes and the Ukrainian one fall to 18.5 million while the U.S. crop would rise to 56.1 million, AgResource director Dan Basse said.
Basse did not give detailed comparative data per country or region for the 2011 harvests.
But in its latest estimates released in late October the International Grains Council pegged the 2011 EU wheat crop at 138.3 million tonnes, Russia's at 58 million, Ukraine's at 21.5 million tonnes and the U.S. one at 54.6 million.
The fall in Black Sea wheat output meant lower exports with Russia seen exporting around 17 million tonnes in 2012/2013, down from 18 million tonnes estimated for this season, and Ukraine 6 million tonnes, down from 8 million seen this season.
Australian wheat exports, however, would reach a record 19.5 million tonnes next season and U.S. wheat exports would rise to 28 million tonnes. EU exports would be stable at 15.5 million tonnes. There were no comparative data for 2011.
The analyst also estimated that world wheat ending stocks in 2012/2013 should be the fifth highest on record at 205 million tonnes, despite a high volume of feed wheat demand -- the second largest on record -- in 2011/2012.
For corn (maize), AgResource said it expected the global crop to rise to 872 million tonnes next year, up from 859 million in 2011, due notably to a jump of 13.9 percent in the U.S. crop.
The analyst pegged the 2012 U.S. corn crop at 13,846 million bushels, against 12,159 million bushels in 2011/2012.
AgResource did not provide detailed 2012 corn production estimates for other countries nor for other crops such as soybeans.
(Additional reporting by Nigel Hunt; editing by Keiron Henderson)