August Placements are expected to be 5.2% lower than last year. This would be the lowest August placement since the history of the current data series (1996). USDA's cattle feeding margin ended the month with a $105 per head profit on outgoing cattle (10 months in a row). Corn averaged $3.97 in Western Kansas in July ($4.16 in July, $6.27 in August 2013). August placements supply the January through April slaughter period.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 1.1% lower than August 2013. There was after a 4% increase due to the calendar day adjustment for this particular month.
Total Cattle on Feed as of September 1 now totals 2.6% under last year. That is a decrease over the August 1 total of 1.9% under last year.
Allendale projects a 535 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of August. The five year average is 499 million lbs. for the end of August. Our estimate represents an increase of 6 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for July is a 4 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 365 million lbs., are below the five year average of 420. This month's number represents a 1 million lb. drawdown from the previous month. The five year average change is a 15 million lb. decrease.
USDA Cattle On Feed Report for release on 9/19/2014 @ 2:00 PM
On Feed September 1 - 97.4
Placements - 94.8
Marketings - 98.9
USDA Cold Storage Report for release on 9/22/2014 @ 2:00 PM
Pork Stocks August 30, last year - 548.97
Pork Stocks August 30, last month - 529.250
Pork Stocks August 30, Allendale - 535.352
Beef Stocks, last year - 430.236
Beef Stocks, last month - 366.549
Beef Stocks, Allendale - 365.124
Cold Storage stocks are estimated - in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.