Cow Calf
Baby Calf Heatlh
Cattle Feeding
Hot Topics
Healthy Heifer
Beef supplies likely to decline further
- NMSU to host youth ranch management camp
- Assessing how you stand financially
- 2012 Alltech Symposium to envisage the world of 2050
- Organization makes generation donation in support of farm safety
- Money ahead before a calf hits the ground?
- Brent crude ends near $123/bbl, 9-month high, on Iran
- USDA website supports America’s future farming generations
- Rains green things up, but hay, grazing still in short supply
- Corn and wheat futures post good gains on Wednesday
- Cold Storage: Beef in freezers up 4 percent from last year
- Feedyard margins – Wow! Packer margins – Ouch!
- Traits that add value to calves
- Fed cattle to new records; feeders, boxed and retail beef advance
- Online weather resources
- Fewer farms and bigger farms
- Farm safety expert: Know what's in proposed child labor law
- D.C. Watch: Obama budget cuts farm programs
- Fading La Nina may be too late for southern U.S. drought
- Iowa State University releases animal-ag research report
- Commentary: A matter of triage
- No more pizza sticks and red sauce
- Worker shortage puts billions of ag production in jeopardy
- Beef’s carbon footprint gets trimmed in video, webinar
- Commentary: 'Get your paws off our laws!'
- NCBA: Partnering with extremist groups bad news for US ag
- Colostrum: What makes it work for the calf?
- EPA advanced E15 availability
- Commentary: HSUS (finally) under scrutiny
- Jolley: Five Minutes with Bill Donald, the exit interview
- Jolley: Five Minutes - John Nalivka & the shrinking cattle herd
The long-term trend toward smaller U.S. beef herds, exacerbated by this year’s devastating drought, will continue for at least another year before numbers stabilize and perhaps shift toward expansion, says Cattle-fax senior analyst Kevin Good.
Good spoke to a group of beef journalists in Texas last week , kicking off an event hosted by Merck Animal Health focused on the role and benefits of their Zilmax beta agonist product for feedyards. Watch for more information from that event over the next few days.
Since 1975, the U.S. cow inventory has declined from 57 million head to 31 million, but beef production has not declined. Heavier carcass weights, Good says, have offset 75 percent of the cow herd decline. Imports, Holstein feeding (versus veal slaughter) and higher weaning rates account for most of the remaining 25 percent.
Good says U.S. cow slaughter so far this year is up 27 percent from the same period last year. Almost all those numbers of from Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana New Mexico and Oklahoma -- states hit hardest by drought. The most severe drought area, Good says, contains 10 million cows, or one-third of the U.S. total herd. Cow slaughter in other parts of the country has dropped off somewhat this year.
Good says cow numbers are likely to begin stabilizing by 2013 or 2014, meaning cow slaughter, and beef production, will decline. Stabilization, he says, will require a reduction in annual cow slaughter of about 1 million head. In addition, fewer heifers will move through feedyards as they return to breeding herds. This year, heifers account for about 36 percent of cattle placed into feedyards, while in expansion years they typically account for about 32 percent.
Cattle-Fax expects U.S. steer and heifer slaughter this year to decline about by 200,000 head compared with last year. For 2012 they expect another year-over-year decline of about 300,000 head. By 2013, with more heifers remaining in breeding herds, steer and heifer slaughter could decline by another 600,000 head.
This year, per-capita U.S. beef supply is about 57.4 pounds. That is likely to decline to 56.3 pounds next year and to 53.7 pounds by 2013 as fewer heifers go to slaughter.
Other key points from Good’s presentation include:
- Global beef production will decline in 2011 for the fourth straight year, while demand continues to grow.
- The United States remains the world’s leader in beef production, producing about 20 percent of global supplies.
- Carcass weights in the United States increase by about 6 percent per year, and that long-term trend is likely to continue.
- U.S. beef exports this year are up 21 percent while imports are down by 14 percent, potential remains for continued growth. Exports to Japan currently are about half of pre-BSE levels while exports to South Korea are about two-thirds pre-BSE levels.
- Exports account for about 11 percent of production this year and add about $200 per head to the value of U.S. beef carcasses.
- Choice beef retail prices are up about 11 percent from last year. Much of the gain is from lower-priced cuts from the Chuck, Round and beef trimmings, which are up by 18 to 20 percent. Rib and Loin prices are up by 8 to 9 percent as the ongoing decline in food-service demand limits price increases for the more premium products.
Comments (2)
Leave a commentTiffany Harding
Report AbuseGreat Article! I am from Southeast Texas, and our ranch has been affected by the Texas drought. This type of
information is helpful to us, as we examine our plans for future herd development. Thank you!
Gary
Report AbuseGreat article. We need these specific numbers. It very much helps our planning process. Exports are huge. Didn't realize, even with recent gains, that Japan and Korea are still below pre BSE levels.