Kansas State University ag economist Barry Flinchbaugh, Ph.D., is well known as an entertaining, opinionated and thought-provoking speaker, and he didn’t disappoint when he delivered the keynote lunch address at last-week’s Cattle Feeders Business Summit hosted by Merck Animal Health in Denver.
Through his career spanning four decades at K-State, Flinchbaugh has been closely involved in farm policy and has participated in the development of several farm bills. He has an insider’s knowledge of politics in the nation’s capitol, and makes it clear he is not pleased with the current state of affairs.
For his speech to cattle feeders, Flinchbaugh was charged with projecting outcomes and implications of the coming election. He makes it clear he speaks his mind and happily accepts disagreement, rather than telling people what they want to hear, and he demoralized some cattle feeders by saying he doesn’t expect much to change coming out of November’s election. He believes the Republicans will retain a majority in the House, the Democrats will remain in control of the Senate and President Obama will win a second term.
Mitt Romney, he says, will need at least 40 percent of the Hispanic vote to win, and he currently polls at about 15 percent. Selection of Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as a running mate could help Romney’s chances, Flinchbaugh says.
He also made it clear he personally is not enamored with either of the presidential candidates.
Regardless of who’s in office, Flinchbaugh says the number-one issue facing cattle feeders is not farm policy, but the overall health of the economy. Beef is somewhat of a luxury product, and when people make more money or feel more financially secure, they eat more beef. Unfortunately, Flinchbaugh isn’t optimistic about economic recovery given the current state of politics in Washington D.C.
Without a comprehensive budget agreement by December 31, the George W. Bush tax cuts will expire and massive automatic spending cuts will kick in, likely leading to a fiscal crisis and a reduction in the nation’s credit rating. But with the atmosphere in the capital more dysfunctional, mean-spirited and partisan than ever, Flinchbaugh does not expect Congress to reach an agreement. He says he longs for the days when Republican President Ronald Reagan and Democratic Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill were able to work together to reach compromise agreements in spite of vast differences in opinion.
The current climate stifles private-sector spending and investment due to uncertainty over taxes, energy prices, health care and other issues, resulting in an estimated $4.5 trillion sitting in cash instead of stimulating the economy.
Flinchbaugh believes the government must raise taxes along with cutting spending. The leadership of both parties knows what must be done, he says, but they lack the guts to do it.
As for the farm bill, Flinchbaugh commends Senate Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Ranking Member Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) for working together to pass a bipartisan bill in the Senate. In the House of Representatives, Ag Committee Chair Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) and Ranking Member Colin Peterson (D-Minn.) passed a bill out of committee, but action stalled in the full assembly, and the House now has gone on recess without voting on a farm bill or an extension of the previous bill. “They’re doing this during the worst drought since 1934, Flinchbaugh says.
He believes strong farm prices over the past few years, coupled with pressures to reduce the deficit, limit the sense of urgency for passing a farm bill among some members of Congress. Also he says some politicians believe high crop prices will make up for low yields during this catastrophic drought, to which he responds: “if you don’t have anything to sell, who gives a damn about the price.”
Flinchbaugh offered his opinions on a few other issues facing agriculture.
On ag’s carbon footprint: Between 1965 and 2005, modern agricultural practices such as reduced tillage and genetic improvement have helped increase yields, reduce water use and resulted in agriculture sequestering massive amounts of atmospheric carbon. Farmers and ranchers should be compensated for carbon sequestration.
On genetically modified (GMO) crops: Being “anti-GMO” is the same as being “pro-starvation.” Agriculture needs to embrace technology and increase yields while reducing resource use to feed the world’s growing population.
On term limits: A single six-year term for the presidency and two terms each for Senators and U.S. Representatives could help return the country to a citizen government and reduce the influence of continuous campaigning on political discourse.
As you might imagine, most cattle feeders in the audience disagreed with Flinchbaugh on some points and agreed with others, but he certainly stimulated plenty of thought and discussion that continued through the day.
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