Global coarse grain production in 2012/13 is forecast down 3.2 million tons this month to 1,110.1 million, with U.S. production down a relatively small 0.5 million tons and foreign barley and corn down by a larger amount. Foreign barley production is projected down 1.8 million tons to 126.0 million, with significant reductions for Australia and Canada. Foreign corn production prospects are cut 1.5 million tons to 567.1 million due to drought effects in the EU and Serbia. Foreign oats production is projected down 0.5 million tons to 20.5 million, mostly because of below-normal rains in Australia. Mixed grain production is trimmed 0.2 million tons to 14.9 million (and down 0.3 million to 14.4 for 2011/12) due to several EU harvest reports, and the largest declines are in Poland and France. However, 2012/13 foreign production prospects are boosted this month for sorghum (up 0.6 million tons to 53.1 million), rye (up 0.6 million to 13.7 million), and millet (up slightly to 30.7 million).

Increased U.S. coarse grain production offsets foreign decline

Australia had a dry winter across most grain areas, so September rainfall was crucial for spring grains entering reproduction. In Western Australia, good rains arrived in late September, but yield prospects had already been hurt. In Eastern Australia, September rainfall was spotty, with some areas receiving ample rains while others remained much drier than normal. Lower projected barley yields in Australia more than offset increased reported area, cutting forecast production 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million. Reduced oats area and lower yield prospects cut 2012/13 production 0.4 million tons to 1.2 million. However, increased area is expected for summer crops, boosting sorghum production 0.2 million tons to 2.7 million and corn production slightly to 0.4 million.

Canada suffered from dryness across much of the Prairies during August and September and high winds that damaged windrowed crops. Rainfall for corn in Ontario was uneven, with dryness to the north and East. Statistics Canada reported reduced yields, with barley production cut 0.9 million tons to 8.6 million, corn trimmed 0.1 million to 11.6 million, and oats reduced slightly to less than 3.0 million.

EU 2012/13 coarse grain production is forecast down 0.9 million tons this month to 141.0 million. Winter grain harvest is complete, and summer crop harvests are accelerated by hot dry summer growing conditions, especially across southern parts of the EU. Most countries are publishing harvest reports that verify production problems. EU corn production is forecast down 1.5 million tons to 55.6 million, with declines for Romania, Hungary, France, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Greece and increases for Spain and Poland. EU mixed grain is forecast down 0.2 million tons to 14.5 million, with most of the reduction due to reduced area in Poland, and sorghum production is reduced slightly for France. Some of the northern EU countries had more rain this summer, and harvest reports indicate higher production of rye (up 0.6 million tons, mostly for Germany, Poland, and Denmark), barley (up 0.4 million, with increases for Spain, France, Poland, and Sweden more than offsetting reductions for several other countries), and oats (up slightly, with an increase for Sweden more than offsetting a decline for France). Serbia suffered from the same drought as its EU neighbors, with corn production forecast down 0.4 million tons to 3.9 million, and small reductions forecast for oats and barley.

Coarse grain production in Sub-Saharan Africa is up 1.0 million tons this month to 101.7 million as a review of production prospects across several countries revealed generally favorable rains, especially across the Sahel. There are increases in forecast 2012/13 production for Ethiopia, Malawi, Ghana, Chad, Mali, Angola, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Congo Brazzaville, but reductions for Madagascar, Kenya, Zambia, Sudan, Lesotho, Botswana, and Burundi.

There are small reductions to 2012/13 barley production this month reported for Algeria and Kyrgyzstan.