In an August 23 report, the International Grains Council (IGC) reduced its estimate for total 2012-2013 grain production by 2 percent from its last report in July. The IGC report projects global corn production 4 percent lower than its July estimate.
The August report projects global corn production and total grain production for the 2012-2013 crop year down about 4 percent from the 2011-2012 totals.
Shorter production will result in a slowing of corn trade, with the IGC August estimate down 7 percent from July’s. World corn stocks will fall to a six-year low, including a steep drop in major exporting countries.
The report notes that exportable corn supplies in the US and Ukraine have tightened. Southern-Hemisphere crop from Brazil, Argentina and South Africa could turn out to be large, but those harvests are months away. The August report projects total grain trade for the 2012-2013 crop down 3 percent from the July estimate.
The IGC estimate for global corn consumption also dropped 3 percent from the July report, and 2 percent below that for the 2011-2012 crop. This would be the first year-to-year reduction in global corn consumption since 1993-1994.
The IGC increased its projection for 2012-2013 world soybean production by 7 percent year-to-year, based on production in South America compensating for a short U.S. crop.
View the full report from the International Grains Council.