U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 2,917 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2012/13. Wheat production is projected at 2,057 million bushels, down 9 percent from last year with reduced prospects for hard red winter wheat.

The all wheat yield, projected at 44.1 bushels per acre, is down 2.2 bushels from the record levels of 2012/13 and 2010/11. The survey-based forecast for winter wheat production is down 10 percent with the lowest harvested-to-planted ratio since 2006/07 and lower yields as persistent drought and April freezes reduce crop prospects in the southern and central Plains. Partly offsetting is higher forecast soft red winter wheat production with higher area. Spring wheat production for 2013/14 is projected to decline 8 percent as reduced durum area and a return to trend yields reduce prospects for durum and other spring wheat.

Record world wheat production is projected in 2013/14, with strong wheat prices encouraging an increase in area, and improved growing conditions boosting yield prospects. Weather through the beginning of May has been mostly favorable across Europe and the Former Soviet Union region, while the Middle East and North Africa are enjoying a blockbuster season.

Wheat consumption is expected to increase, though the rise in wheat feed use is expected to be limited by relatively low corn prices, which will motivate higher corn feed use. As world wheat supplies are projected to increase more than use, world wheat stocks are expected to grow modestly. Lower supplies, delayed wheat harvest, and increased competition are expected to limit U.S. exports, which are forecast to decline by 9 percent in the 2013/14 July-June trade year.