U.S. feed grain production for 2013/14 is projected at 376 million metric tons, up from 286 million in 2012/13 in a scenario similar to the May 2012 forecast when a record crop was predicted based on early planting progress and favorable spring weather. Those projections were dashed by subsequent drought. This season, the corn crop is expected to recover from last season’s drought. Acreage is projected higher for the four feed grains and yields, at 3.74 tons per acre, are up 26 percent over last year. Projected acreage is up for corn, sorghum, and oats and is nearly unchanged for barley.
For the four feed grains combined, U.S. planted area is up 1.6 million acres. Planted area is based on producer intentions reported in the March 30 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area is based on historical relationships in planted and harvested acreage. Projected yields are based on trend models for barley and oats, an historic average that drops highs and lows for sorghum, and a weather-adjusted trend model that also takes into account May planting progress for corn. Harvested area is projected at 100.5 million acres, up from 96.6 million last season.
Beginning feed grain stocks are projected at 21.9 million tons in 2013/14, the lowest since 1996/97. Total 2013/14 feed grain supply is projected at a record-high 400 million metric tons, slightly over the previous record set in 2009/10.
Total U.S. feed grain use is expected to increase by 49 million tons to 346 million in 2013/14 due to higher feed and residual use; food, seed and industrial (FSI) use; and exports. Year-to-year feed and residual use are projected up 24 million tons, and exports are projected 16 million higher. FSI use is up by 9 million tons. Feed grains used to produce ethanol for fuel is up 7 million tons. Increasing poultry and hog inventories and lower feed prices are expected to boost demand for feed in the livestock industry. The residual component of feed and residual is expected to grow in 2013/14 as production expands sharply. Ending feed grain stocks are projected to advance 33 million tons year-to-year from 2012/13. Average feed grain farm price is expected to decrease 32 percent from this season’s record level as supplies grow.
Changes to 2012/13 Corn Balance Sheet
Projected corn FSI is increased 48 million bushels as corn used for ethanol is set 50 million bushels higher. Weekly data from the Energy Information Agency shows a resurgence in ethanol production spurred by favorable margins for ethanol producers as corn prices moderate. In addition, corn used for seed was updated, slightly lowering FSI. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels based on the year-to-date pace. The resulting 2-million-bushel reduction in use increases ending stocks to 759 million bushels.
This month’s 2012/13 average farm corn price range is reduced 5 cents on the high end of the range and increased 5 cents on the low end, leaving the projected range at $6.70 to $7.10 per bushel.