The first survey-based yield forecast for the 2014 U.S. corn crop is up 2.1 bushels per acre from last month’s trend-based projection to a record 167.4 bushels. Excellent growing conditions in most corn areas support a record forecast production of 14,032 million bushels, breaking the 14-billion-bushel barrier for the first time. Seventy-three percent of the crop is rated good to excellent, compared with 64 percent last year at this time. Supplies for the 2014/15 marketing year are projected at a record 15,243 million bushels. This month’s 2014/15 total disappearance is projected up by 100 million bushels, with increases in feed and residual use, corn used for ethanol, and exports. Ending stocks are expected slightly higher, and the price received by farmers is reduced by 10 cents on both the high and low ends of the projected range to $3.55 to $4.25 per bushel.

Sorghum production in 2014/15 is increased by 19 million bushels this month to 429 million due to a 3-bushel-per-acre increase in expected yields. Per acre yield forecasts for Kansas and Texas are up 13 bushels and 5 bushels, respectively, over last year. Increased world 2014/15 coarse grain supplies this month outstrip expected increases in use, boosting projected global ending stocks to 222 million tons, the highest in 15 years.


Source: USDA/ERS