Schwieterman: Beef demand, prices picking up along the East Coast

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Corn                                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term:Down                      Net Long Futures and Options: 153010
Long Term: Down                      Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Z +1 @7:30 AM


The December corn got within 5 ½ cents of the harvest low before turning around and posting a positive close. The reversal higher in an oversold market is a good indication that we are about so see a corrective rally. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the December contract back at the bottom of the old trading range ($7.32 - $7.35) this week. To do much more than that we will need to see some kind of positive demand news and I’m not counting on that at this time.

Wheat                                          Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                     Net Long Futures and Options: -18976
Long Term: Down                      Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +3 KC: Z +3 @7:30 AM


So far the December KW has held at the lower end of the trading range. It will be dry in the bulk of the HRW belt for the next 2 weeks and we are still waiting for better export sales, so the news hasn’t changed. It is very likely that we see the December wheat drift back up to the $9.00 area and the 40 and 50-day moving averages simply based on short covering this week.

Soybeans                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                       Net Long Futures and Options: 103657
Long Term: Down                        Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: F +9 @7:30 AM


The soybeans finally stopped the freefall they had been in. Yesterday’s solid close and the follow through buying overnight indicate we are in for a short covering rally. The recent break will probably uncover fresh export demand and the NOPA crush figure this morning was better than expected at 153.54 million bushels, so there is nothing wrong with domestic demand. Look for the January beans to start climbing back to $15.00.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 20-30 Lower


Live cattle futures closed moderately higher on Tuesday, with continued strength in the beef market along with bullish estimates for Friday’s on feed report lending support. Bids and asking prices remain a good $4-5 apart heading into midweek. Futures remain in a 4.00 trading range, with solid support under the 125.00 level in the December contract. Beef demand from the east coast is picking up, with prices and demand on the rise this week.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 30-50 Lower


Feeder cattle futures closed mixed on Tuesday, with November falling along with cash, while deferred contracts traded steady to higher. Overnight activity is lower, with deferred months down as much as .65-.70 for the session. Corn prices have traded both sides of unchanged, with current prices near steady. Friday’s placement number is expected to be 12-13% below year ago levels. This would be the 5th month in a row of lower placements.



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