Corn                                        Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                       Net Long Futures and Options: 306247
Long Term: Up                        Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: N +1 1/2 Z -4 1/2
Opening Calls: Mixed

Bull spreaders were active overnight partially due to the firming basis and partially due to the improving crop condition ratings. The corn made a strong run higher last week and is now overbought, so traders may not be willing to chase the market higher without seeing a pullback. It will probably take some fresh demand news or strong outside markets to push the corn to new contract highs again this week. This afternoon’s Planting Progress number will be important as well. The corn is nearly all planted, but there are still areas in Ohio that are incomplete.

Wheat                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -11493
Long Term: Down                    Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +4 1/4 KC: N -1 1/4
Opening Calls: Mixed

Friday’s close in the July KW was actually promising. It is difficult to rally a market during harvest, but the wheat is oversold, the market rejected the weakness on Friday and posted a close at the top of the trading range, and yield reports still don’t look that good. The first step in confirming a bottom is to take out Friday’s high, but so far the market hasn’t gotten close to that. Look for two sided trade today. A close above $8.76 is a buy signal.

Soybeans                                Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                        Net Long Futures and Options: 71805
Long Term: Up                         Change: -4500
Overnight Trade: N -3 1/2 X-4 3/4
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower

The higher ending stocks estimate in the supply and demand report has put a lot of weight on the soybean market. We need to see either a jump in export demand or a threat to new crop production to turn the market around. Planting is still behind normal and final acreage is still a question, but those concerns have moved to the back burner for the moment. Trend indicators will begin to turn down if there isn’t a bounce today.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with fresh new sellers entering the market. Economic concerns over recovery efforts are weighing on demand from a domestic level. Overall export demand remains supportive, but numbers have retreated over the past few weeks. Recent lows are now within reach at 102.37 basis the August contract. This area needs to hold in order to escape more serious pressure on the fats.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures failed to hold early strength on Friday, closing with triple digit losses after seeing weakness develop in the live cattle pit. Gains of .32 in the old crop corn for the week, along with struggling economic recovery was more than the market could handle. Overnight corn values were mixed, with July modestly higher and new crop down a few cents. On the charts feeders remain range bound, with a slightly lower bias. Cash markets showed some recovery last week.