Corn Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: -140916
Long Term: Down Change: -15000
Overnight Trade: Z +1 @7:30 AM
Yesterday the December corn fell below the $4.90 support. Forecasts are, for the most part, nonthreatening, and the $4.90 area will now become overhead resistance for the market. Something to pay attention to now is the September – December spread. As soon as traders become satisfied that we will have enough corn to bridge the old crop to new crop gap, that spread will collapse. The next downside target for the December contract is the $4.50 area.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Trends – September Contract
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -73402
Long Term: Down Change: -2500
Overnight Trade: Chicago: U +4 KC: U +3 @7:30 AM
The wheat market is still trying to hang on in the face of all the weakness in the corn and soybeans. The fundamental outlook of the market is favorable as long as we keep exporting wheat. The falling price of corn, however may still way on the market because wheat will soon be priced out of the feed rations when the new crop arrives. Trend line resistance for the September KW comes in at the $7.05 area today.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Trends – August Contract
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 73190
Long Term:Up Change: -10000
Overnight Trade: X +6 @7:30 AM
The collapse in the soybean basis weighed on the August soybeans yesterday and again overnight. The forecasts are putting pressure on the new crop contracts. The November contract quickly went from being on the verge of breaking out to the upside to trying to fall out of the bottom of the recent range. If the forecasts stay favorable there will be more pressure in the November contract with $12.25 being the next support.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures closed modestly higher on Tuesday but disappointedly a full dollar off of session highs. Cutout values were sharply lower on Tuesday, taking some of the margin out of the packers’ pockets. We look for cash trade to once again be a Friday event. Basis levels remain favorable for cash improvement but that has been true for several weeks in a row. Overnight trade has been two sided, with a slightly lower bias. Open interest increased by 1,918 contracts in Tuesday’s trade.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 10-30 Lower
Feeder cattle futures closed moderately higher on Tuesday, with lower corn prices supporting the move. Early reports indicate a slow placement pace for the month of July to date. Overnight prices are modestly lower in the feeders, with corn trading narrowly mixed. Cash index levels fell 63 points on Tuesday, which may limit any further rally efforts in the futures.