Schwieterman: Cattle futures move lower, cash trade steady

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Corn                                        Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Down                   Net Long Futures and Options: -174263
Long Term: Down                    Change: -4000
Overnight Trade: H Unch @7:30 AM


The corn was very, very quiet overnight. There is very little fresh news. There is still talk about the Chinese rejections and a little chatter about dry Argentine forecasts. The weather in S. America isn’t a huge issue right now, but if the long range forecasts verify and there is no relief in the forecasts, it could cause some excitement at the first of the year. A positive close today would keep the market on track for another test of the 40 and 50-day moving average resistance.

Wheat                                       Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -111496
Long Term: Down                     Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H -2 KC: H -2 @7:30 AM


There is still nothing positive to say about the wheat market. The March KW made another new low for the move overnight. Our wheat is still very competitive on the world market and the technical indicators still say the market is oversold, neither of which seem to matter. There is no sense in trying to pick a bottom without some kind of fresh news.

Soybeans                                   Estimated Fund Position
Trends – January Contract
Short Term: Up                          Net Long Futures and Options: 140672
Long Term:Up                            Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: F +2 @7:30 AM


The January soybeans are testing the resistance at the $13.50 area. Soybean traders are going to be more sensitive to the stories about dry weather in Argentina than corn traders are since the soybean stocks are much tighter than the corn. If we have another strong export sales report tomorrow traders will be even more nervous about supplies this summer. This market will remain very volatile because it is only a matter of time until traders start talking about the exports drying up in the new year. Be cautious chasing either rallies or breaks in this market.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 10-30 Lower


Live cattle futures settled moderately lower on Tuesday and has traded narrowly mixed overnight. Cutout values reversed their Monday gains on Tuesday, reestablishing the recent weaker pattern. Cash trade is looking steady at this point, with no bids and asking prices near $133 in the south. Show list numbers are down but packers will be buying for two short kill weeks in a row. Todays Fed meeting minutes will be released after 1:15 central time and could be a market mover.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 20-40 Lower


Feeder cattle futures closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with the front two months posting triple digit losses. Cash index levels fell .70 for the day, as the extremely strong levels from late last week have not seen follow through strength so far this week. The modest gains in corn on Tuesday have been followed by narrowly mixed overnight trade. Technical signals are pointing to some follow through selling in this market.



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