Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 133527
Long Term: Down Change: -4000
Overnight Trade: U +5 3/4 Z +5
Opening Calls: 5-7 Higher
The corn market is consolidating just above last week’s lows. Technical indicators still show that the market is oversold, which is probably the best reason the market has to rally. We did have a couple of large export sales announcements yesterday, but there is still no confirmation of Chinese business. The forecasts are mostly non-threatening for the Corn Belt and traders are basically waiting for fresh news, so plan on another day of directionless trade.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -48107
Long Term: Down Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -4 1/4 KC: N -9 1/4
Opening Calls: 5-10 Lower
The wheat market is still soft and it appears that the September KW will need to test last week’s low of $6.95 ¼ before attempting another rally. There isn’t any fresh news that suggests a new low for the move is necessary at this time and there is a chance that wheat production is cut in next week’s report. However, at present the only friendly feature in the market place is that the wheat is oversold and due for a corrective bounce. That isn’t much to go on, so look for the wheat to drift down to the recent lows.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 26501
Long Term: Down Change: +1500
Overnight Trade: N +5 1/2 1/2 X+4 3/4
Opening Calls: 3-5 Higher
It is the same old story in the soybeans. The market is trading sideways and we should expect more of the same. The soybeans have a good chance of a friendly report next week, which is putting solid support under the market, however chances are slim that the report is actually “bullish” and the weather doesn’t appear to be threatening for the bulk of the growing regions, therefore the market continues to drift.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures closed mixed on Wednesday, with Oct‐Dec moderately lower, while the balance of the months were firmer. The session was quiet, with traders still awaiting the bulk of this weeks’ cash trade. Overnight is narrowly mixed, with a slightly firmer bias in the August. Bids and asking prices remain far apart. We expect cash to develop near the price of the past two weeks. Outside influences are mixed, with equities and the Dollar firmer.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle futures were steady to .32 lower on Wednesday, as narrowly mixed corn and a lack of volume in either direction led to a dull trade. Overnight trade has been steady to modestly higher, in spite of firming action in the grain markets. Cash remains supportive, but future prices are still well above cash index levels.