Corn                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down              Net Long Futures and Options: 137527
Long Term: Down              Change: +10000
Overnight Trade: U -4 1/2 Z -5 3/4
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower

The corn was strong yesterday, but relative to the recent weakness the bounce was rather small. The market was weak overnight and we are still lacking bullish news. For the most part the forecasts are not threatening for the central Corn Belt and the crop condition ratings improved slightly to 69% Good to Excellent, which was expected. Ratings didn’t improve everywhere, so there are still concerns in some regions, but this market will need to see a weather threat in the central Corn Belt, or confirmation of Chinese business in order to sustain gains.

Wheat                                 Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down               Net Long Futures and Options: -62107
Long Term: Down                Change: -9000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -9 1/2 KC: N -13 1/2
Opening Calls: 10-15 Lower

The wheat market is consolidating. There were good gains yesterday, but the market gave them up overnight. A retest of Friday’s low is likely, but if that low holds, it will be a very good sign of a bottom. Some good export sales news would really help this market, but we aren’t getting it and the stronger dollar today won’t help matters. Look for a few days of directionless trade.

Soybeans                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                 Net Long Futures and Options: 25001
Long Term: Down                  Change: +3000
Overnight Trade: N -10 1/2 X-10
Opening Calls: 10-15 Lower

The soybeans are trading sideways. I had expected the soybeans to trade better relative to the corn and wheat, but yesterday it seemed that profit taking in the spreads was in control. The 1 point improvement in the crop condition ratings to 66% Good to Excellent. That is equal to last year and suggests that the current yield estimate of 43.4 bu/ac is on target and that we will see a sharp reduction in new crop ending stocks in next week’s report.