Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 7001

Long Term: Down Change: -2000

Overnight Trade: Z -3 @7:30 AM

The corn was lower overnight, but still a couple cents above yesterday’s low. The market seems to be trying to stabilize ahead of the weekend, but with rain falling in Iowa right now, one has to wonder how long the stability will last. The 6-10 day forecast calls for below normal precipitation for the bulk of the Corn Belt, which is a little bit of a concern, but since it comes with below normal temperatures, it’s hard to get worried about crop conditions. It still looks like rallies are for selling and $3.30 remains our next downside target.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -72819

Long Term: Down Change: -1000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z Unch KC: Z Unch @7:30 AM

The wheat is showing signs of stability, but yesterday’s failure to hold gains was a big disappointment. The Paris milling wheat has closed higher 3 days in a row, which is partly due to quality concerns. There is also concern about crop losses in Ukraine due to the continued fighting there. Still, what the wheat market needs more than anything is a big export sale. Yesterday’s number was ok, but just not big enough to get speculators excited, especially when the attitude in the corn and soybean market is overwhelmingly bearish.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – November Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -49341

Long Term: Down Change: +3000

Overnight Trade: X -10 @7:30 AM

Yesterday’s close in the lower half of the range was disappointing and the November contract has proceeded to fall below yesterday’s low. Yes, we have good demand, but traders still have visions of huge piles of soybeans this fall. We have a little bit of a weather concern for early August, but it just isn’t a big enough threat at the moment to produce consistent gains. Perhaps we will see fireworks Sunday night if the forecasts are hot, but otherwise plan on further weakness.

Live Cattle


Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: 20-60 Higher

Live cattle futures closed higher on the session but curiously off of session highs considering the big jump in cash prices seen throughout the region. Northern cattlemen sold cattle as high as $165 on Thursday, while southern trade was less affective, with bids reaching no higher than $162. The board is strong in overnight trade, with August up nearly 1.00 but remaining $4-$7 discount to yesterdays’ cash. Boxed beef prices were sharply higher, with choice up 2.97 and select gaining 4.14 for the day. On feed and inventory numbers are expected to be supportive in this afternoons report.

Feeder Cattle


Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: 30-70 Higher

Feeder cattle futures closed mixed on Thursday, with moderate losses on most of the late summer and fall contracts. The 400 point trading range in the feeders has both sides of the trading floor on alert. Corn prices reversed early Thursday morning strength to close lower and are off another 3 cents in overnight trade. Placements are expected to be 5% lower in this afternoons report and we would not be surprised if numbers were actually a couple percent lower than expected. The cash index started the recovery that we spoke of earlier in the week, with 2.34 gains on Thursday.