Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: -28554

Long Term: Down Change: -5000

Overnight Trade: Z +3 @7:30 AM

The December corn began the overnight session by making a new low for the move, but later turned higher on concerns about the extended forecast and prospects for lower crop condition ratings today. The strength, so far, is insignificant since the market hasn’t even tested Friday’s high and it will take a move above $3.79 to get anyone too excited. That being said, if this week’s rain disappoints, and the following week is dry, then we might have some justification for a rally.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -84123

Long Term: Down Change: +2000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +10 KC: Z +8 @7:30 AM

The wheat was strong overnight, but the December KW is still short of Friday’s high. We probably have to have a close above $6.50 in the December KW to convince traders that this market is really turning higher. Export sales have been good and we know that there are quality and quantity issues with milling wheat around the world, so there is a good fundamental basis for strength. The direction of the corn market will play a role as will the export pace moving forward.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – November Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -63766

Long Term: Down Change: -8000

Overnight Trade: X +15 @7:30 AM

Like the corn and wheat the soybeans posted solid gains overnight, but the November contract hasn’t made it through Friday’s high. It does look to me like the November beans want to stay stuck in a range between $10.50 and $11.20, so now it is time to move back higher. Dry weather in August and declining crop condition ratings are certainly good reasons to see strength. A move back above $11.00 would be a good selling opportunity because even if the crop has a poor finish to the growing season, stocks are still going to grow.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed moderately to sharply lower on Friday, with Oct-Dec taking the brunt of the selling. Open interest in the August contract fell over 12,000 loads, with option expiration accounting for much of the liquidation. Due to basis levels being so strong over the past several months, we don’t see a lot of August contracts written that will detract from the cash trade. Numbers remain tight and placements remain light. Money flow may now be the key to the rest of the 3rd quarter.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures posted triple digit losses in all 2014 contracts except the August on Friday. Liquidation of longs seemed more prevalent than new selling on Friday, with open interest off 835 contracts. Overnight grain prices are on the rise, with corn gaining 3-4 cents and meal up 5.5 dollars a ton. The cash index is at all-time highs heading into this week and remains more than 5.00 premium to the front end of the futures trade. Outside markets look more supportive to start the week.