Corn Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -137591
Long Term: Down Change: -10000
Overnight Trade: Z -3 @7:30 AM
The December corn couldn’t manage two consecutive closes above the 50-day moving average. Forecasts seem to be flip flopping and the market does as well. The chart points to watch today are the 40-day moving average at $4.82 ¾, the top of Monday’s chart gap at $4.79, the bottom of the gap at $4.74 ½, and trend line support near $4.71.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Trends – September Contract
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -71977
Long Term: Down Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -3 KC: Z Unch @7:30 AM
The December KW is consolidating between the 40 and 50-day moving average and waiting to see what the corn market does. The wheat market has solid fundamentals supporting the market, but we obviously need to see more excitement in the export market in order for the wheat to have independent strength. For the time being a move back to the open chart gap at $7.00 is a strong possibility.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Trends – November Contract
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 89529
Long Term:Up Change: -6000
Overnight Trade: X -3 @7:30 AM
Yesterday the November soybeans made a new high for the move followed by a poor close, which will have traders fearing a top. The forecasts will have the final say, but if the weather looks decent then the November contract will be heading back to the open chart gap at $13.31 ½. Export sales are still solid despite the run higher in prices, which will make traders even more nervous if we do suffer further crop damage, so plan on more volatility and for the markets to be very sensitive to the forecasts.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: 10-30 Higher
Live cattle futures closed moderately lower on Tuesday, with cash trade looking like a Thursday-Friday trade once again. Issues overseas are keeping money from getting carried away, as traders tighten up their spending until something is resolved. Overnight cattle prices are firmer, supported by higher cutout values and the threat of shrinking cattle weights, due to extreme heat and the dropping of Zilmax usage. Strength in the Dollar this morning could limit buying of commodities in general.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 20-40 Higher
Feeder cattle futures closed with triple digit gains on Tuesday, recovering about half of Mondays’ selloff on the back of lower corn close. The cash index posted a modest gain on Tuesday and is expected to be controlled near term by the action in the corn market. Overnight activity is trending higher once again, with the soon to be lead September contract leading the way with .65 gains. Increasing energy prices could limit gains in the meats, as transportation costs go on the rise.