Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options:

Long Term: Down Change:

Overnight Trade: Z +3 @7:30 AM

The corn traded higher overnight on very large volume. FSA data that suggest lower acreage was the main supporting factor. If there is a cut in the acreage estimate it might not happen until the January report or it might not happen at all since the FSA data is incomplete. Regardless of the acreage it still looks like we should plan on a higher yield estimate, which will offset any acreage cut. Crop condition ratings are still historically high and harvest is progressing. Sell rallies.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options:

Long Term: Down Change:

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +2 KC: Z +3 @7:30 AM

The wheat followed the corn higher overnight, and it also helps that the French wheat is up for a change. The December KW actually has an outside day higher on the chart, so if the market can manage a positive close today it could encourage some short covering the rest of the week. Otherwise, fresh news is limited and we are waiting on the next export sales report.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – November Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options:

Long Term: Down Change:

Overnight Trade: X +2 @7:30 AM

Like the corn, the soybeans were higher due to the idea that the acreage estimate could be reduced at some point. It also helped that the November beans posted an outside day higher on the chart yesterday and that export demand continues to be very, very good. It still don’t think that the November beans will spend much, if any, time back above $10.00. Yields are too good and will likely offset any future cut in acreage.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Monday after trading in a broad 1.90 trading range. Cutout values were lower at day’s end, with show lists smaller in the south and somewhat larger up north. Our list was off 18% from week ago levels. The October contract has retraced about 38% of the last move higher, with the 50% retracement and 50 day moving average looming as the next major support level. Fridays’ on feed report is expected to show another round of smaller placements vs year ago. Overnight trade is currently showing modest losses.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures were narrowly mixed on Monday, with the front months modestly lower and 2015 contracts modestly higher. Corn prices were weaker on Monday but are showing some moderate strength this morning. The cash index gained 2.30 on Monday to a new record high of 230.04. Overnight trade is mostly lower as we write, with two sided trade throughout most of the session. Expectations of 4-6% smaller placements from August should add to support into weeks’ end.