Corn                                            Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: 253141
Long Term: Up                          Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: Z -6 1/2 N -6 1/2
Opening Calls: 5-10 Lower

The corn supply and demand numbers were mixed this morning. Old crop ending stocks were lower than expected at 920 million, yield was lower than expected at 148.1 bpa, but new crop ending stocks were higher than expected at 672 million. That is still lower than last month, but USDA is planning on much slower demand in order for stocks levels to stay that high and it remains to be seen whether or not that will happen. I fear that a lot of traders will view this report as disappointing.

Wheat                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                   Net Long Futures and Options: -36449
Long Term: Up                         Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -4 KC: Z -2 1/2
Opening Calls: 5-10 Lower

The wheat report was bearish. The ending stocks estimate came in 90 million over last month due mostly to cuts in demand. The USDA is continuing to tell us that we will not have any problems with wheat supply for a long time to come. Traders are going to use wheat as the short leg of spreads until we see some better demand news.

Soybeans                                Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                Net Long Futures and Options: 141345
Long Term: Up                      Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: X -2 1/4 N -3/4
Opening Calls: 10-15 Lower

Traders were looking for a small cut in yield, but got a small increase to 41.8 bpa. Ending stocks ended up 10 million over last month at 165 million, which won’t help the market either. The November soybeans will be back to testing the $14.00 support very quickly and a close above or below that level today will determine the direction of the market for the rest of the week.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 20-40 Lower

Live cattle futures closed moderately lower on Friday, but up more than 3.50 for the week basis the October contract. Sharply higher cash trade was the result, with southern trade active at the $118 level. Weakness in overnight equity markets could limit this morning’s follow through rally in the live cattle. Asking prices are expected to be $120 or higher to start the week, with $190+ being asked up north. This mornings’ supply/demand report on grains will be monitored for direction on deferred livestock contracts.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 10-30 Lower

Feeder cattle futures were nearly 2.00 higher for the week, fighting off seasonal weakness and getting boosts from lower corn and higher fat cattle prices. Corn is lower overnight, but will be led by reaction to this mornings’ supply/demand figures. Projected rain in the southern plains this weekend could provide a lift for the feeders if it comes to be. We’ll believe it when we see it.