Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 218846
Long Term: Up Change: +12000
Overnight Trade: Z +2 @7:30 AM
The US corn crop is now rated at 24% Good to Excellent, which was down 1 point and 50% poor to very poor, which was up 2 points. The decline in ratings has definitely slowed and that fact that the maturity is so advanced this year means that the condition ratings probably won’t decline much more. For the moment traders are waiting for Friday’s report to give us a better idea of what corn production will be, so look for a few more sideways sessions. The December corn should stay between $7.80 and $8.20 today.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 13569
Long Term:Up Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z+6 KC: Z +4 @7:30 AM
The wheat market did well yesterday and had follow through buying overnight. Trend line resistance in the December KW contract will come in at the $9.37 area today. It is doubtful that the market can move through that resistance until Friday, but the resistance should be tested soon. I am still planning on directionless trade until Friday’s report.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 199709
Long Term:Up Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: X +11 @7:30 AM
The soybean have gotten back about 25% of yesterday’s losses. The good to excellent rating stayed unchanged at 29%, but the poor to very poor increased to 39%, so the crop is still deteriorating, but not as fast as it once was. Many traders are convinced that the beans can still recapture yield potential and perhaps avoid a disaster like the corn. Crop maturity is advanced, however, so the crop is running out of time.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Monday and are expected to see similar trade today. Overall show lists appear to be near unchanged from a week ago, with our list modestly larger. Beef prices were higher to start the week and packers started the week 4,000 ahead of last week with Monday’s kill. Choppy trade should continue, with a stronger technical bias. There were 71 contracts posted for delivery against the August contract after the close. The Dollar is weaker and equities are firmer.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle futures closed moderately lower on Monday, as the market struggles to get out of the recent trading range. Overnight corn values are modestly higher. We expect feeders to remain tentative until after Friday’s grain report. Buying calves or yearlings for winter feeding, with cost of gains at current levels and rising is a risky prospect. A real winter could increase cost of gains exponentially.