Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 110997
Long Term: Up Change: +17000
Overnight Trade: H +1/4 Z +1
Opening Calls: 1-2 Higher
Yesterday the March corn posted a mediocre close after stalling out at last week’s high. Overnight the market traded both sides of unchanged and finished the session flat. It wouldn’t be surprising to see more choppy trade during the day session. The long term weather pattern in S. America looks bullish and traders are expecting a bullish supply and demand report, but the rain falling right now will probably keep the bulls in check. Buy a move towards yesterday’s low, sell a move toward yesterday’s high.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -71705
Long Term: Down Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H -2 3/4 KC: H -2 1/4
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower
The wheat seemed to benefit from Index fund buying late yesterday and at the March KW finished at the top of the daily range. The charts look friendly now. The market held where it needed to last week and started this week with a strong move higher and Index fund buying is likely again today. I can’t get excited about the fundamentals of the wheat, but the technicals suggest further gains.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 16419
Long Term: Up Change: +10000
Overnight Trade: H -1/4 X -1 1/2
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower
Soybean futures were choppy overnight. Yesterday’s enthusiasm was kept in check by the rain falling today and the 71.75 MMT production estimate by CONAB (Brazil’s version of USDA.) I still like the fact that the March beans held at the $11.92 support and further gains are likely due to the S. American weather. We had a sales announcement of 145,000 MT of beans to unknown destinations yesterday and a few more sales like that would call into question USDA’s current export estimate.
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 10-20 Higher
Live cattle futures closed mixed on Monday, with the front two months moderately lower, while June gained .32 for the day. Cutouts were mixed, while most show lists were lower for the week. Reports of a pickup in imported beef from Australia during December could indicate how tight upcoming supplies are expected to be. Overnight is showing modest gains across the board. Some packers pulled a majority of their January contracts last week, which should force them back into the cash market for the remainder of the month.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 30-50 Higher
Feeder cattle futures closed mixed on Monday, with a firmer bias continuing in the cash market. Video auction sales on Monday were seen as significantly higher, with good strength shown in Oklahoma City as well. Overnight corn prices were flat to slightly higher, while feeders posted solid gains above Monday’s highs. The market appears ready to retest recent all‐time highs.