Corn                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term:Down                   Net Long Futures and Options: -153260
Long Term: Down                   Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: Z +3 @7:30 AM

Late yesterday and overnight the corn market was supported by the Federal Reserve decision not to taper the Quantitative Easing. The December contract is still trading well within Tuesday’s trading range, so traders aren’t too excited about the continued money printing. Export sales were mediocre at 437,400 MT. If the weaker Dollar results in larger export sales then traders would have something to get excited about, but we will have to wait and see if that happens. The charts are telling us to stay short unless we see a close above $4.63 in the December contract.

Wheat                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term: Down                  Net Long Futures and Options: -82412
Long Term: Down                   Change: +1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +8 KC: Z +8 @7:30 AM

Wheat export sales were great at 704,400 MT and the falling Dollar may generate more sales, which is just what the wheat market needs. The overnight strength has the December contract trying to work out of the sideways trading range the market has been stuck in, but I think we will have to see the December KW close above $7.05 before the speculators will get excited about wheat. I am certainly optimistic, but we will have to see better price action to change the trend of the market.

Soybeans                                Estimated Fund Position
Trends – November Contract
Short Term: Down                   Net Long Futures and Options: 108310
Long Term:Up                         Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: X +10 @7:30 AM

Soybean export sales were great at 923,000 MT and they will be at least double that next week, so demand is obviously hot. The fundamental picture could turn exceptionally bullish very soon thanks to both supply and demand issues, but the market itself is still range bound. Recent events can probably take the market back to the top of the trading range near $14.10 in the November contract, but that will be the true test to see if we are starting a longer term bull market.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 30-50 Higher

Live cattle futures closed modestly higher across the board on Wednesday, with further strength seen overnight following the Federal Reserve’s decision to not taper their monthly printing press. Dollar weakness since 1 pm on Wednesday has commodity prices in general on the rise. The shrinking pork production and ongoing strong beef exports should remain supportive into year end. All-time record high equity prices should benefit as well.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 30-50 Higher

Feeder cattle futures closed moderately higher on Wednesday and are expected to see additional strength today in spite of higher corn trade overnight. Placement numbers are expected to be off 8% in this Friday’s on feed report. The lower Dollar trend could bring more strength than expected in the corn market but overall production still looks to be very large.