Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 34417
Long Term: Up Change: -8000
Overnight Trade: N -5 Z -10 @7:30 AM
Bull spreading was active overnight. Crop condition ratings were better than expected at 63% Good to Excellent. That is still below average, but the thoughts are that the recent moisture will eventually make conditions ideal. On the charts we saw both the July and December contracts fail at the critical resistance levels and post outside days down on the charts. That action suggests a move to the lower end of the range.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -55889
Long Term: Down Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -8 KC: N -6 @7:30 AM
Yesterday the July KW traded briefly above the 50-day moving average, but failed to hold gains. The market is essentially consolidating just below the 40 and 50-day moving averages and has been for quite some time. There is harvest activity in Texas and yields are poor, which was expected and traders don’t care. If the corn trades back to the bottom of the trading range the wheat will struggle.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 88531
Long Term:Up Change: +6000
Overnight Trade: N -12 X -19 @7:30 AM
Soybeans are at a critical juncture. The July contract did not make a new high for the move yesterday and if the market loses upward momentum now, many traders will think a top has been made. Soybean planting is still well behind normal, which is supportive to the market as a whole, but there are still ideas out there that we will see an increase in acreage and that rain makes grain. A close below $15.00 in the July contract today would be a sell signal.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures settle moderately to sharply lower on Monday, with bigger show lists nationally and lower cutout values weighing on the market. Our show list was actually smaller than a week ago and weights remain a supportive factor. The choice/select spread widened significantly, even though the prices were off on both sides. The US Dollar has fallen nearly 200 points in the past week, which may raise foreign demand as we move forward. Overnight trade has been narrowly mixed, with a slightly lower bias.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 20-40 Higher
Feeder cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Monday and are off to strong start this morning, with lower corn prices leading the way. New crop corn has dropped 25 cents since their high on Monday morning. That weakness has ignited some short covering and light spec buying in the feeders. Cash index levels appear to be on the rise, gaining 2.33 since Friday. August remains more than 11.50 premium to the days cash index but could be carving out a seasonal bottom over the next several weeks. Pasture conditions remain on the mend, which should provide competition in the sale barns for the light weight offerings.