Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 92712
Long Term: Up Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: H +4 1/2 Z +3
Opening Calls: 3-5 Higher
The March corn made a sizable break yesterday and closed below the recent chart gap. There was some buying in overnight trade on ideas that yesterday’s break was too big and that the weather is still bullish in S. America. Export sales were poor at 299,500 MT for the old crop and perhaps the holidays are to blame. The bears will be eyeing the $6.30 area as the next downside target and the bulls are going to be counting on today’s friendly jobs report for support and more dry weather in S. America over the weekend.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -68418
Long Term: Down Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +6 KC: H +7 1/4
Opening Calls: 7-10 Higher
Export sales were terrible at 138,600 MT, so there won’t be much wheat specific bullish news today. The March KW did reach a 50% retracement of the move up, so yesterday’s low should be decent support, but if the corn turns lower today, $6.72 will be the next downside target.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 17269
Long Term: Up Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: H +7 3/4 X +7
Opening Calls: 7-10 Higher
Soybean exports weren’t very good at 281,300 MT. That is under what we need each week despite the low expectations for the year. The market made a decent recovery overnight, but since the market didn’t reach any major technical objectives, one must still fear a deeper correction. For today the $11.92 area looks like the next downside target for the March contract.
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 10-20 Higher
Live cattle futures failed to hold early gains on Thursday, closing over a dollar below session highs and posting at least moderate losses for the day. Cash trade has been very light, with some western Nebraska trade posted at $121‐$122 by early afternoon. Packers and feedlots continue to be a ways away in most cases heading into the first full kill week of the year. Beef prices dropped significantly in the choice category, with select posting modest losses. Open interest in the futures jumped over 5,000 contracts on the day, suggesting new sellers in the market.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 20-40 Higher
Feeder cattle futures posted triple digit gains in the first half of the session on Thursday, before the selloff in the live pit reduced price to modest gains on the close. New contract highs in the feeders were posted in all but the January contract. Cash feeder prices continue to be on fire, with some reports from the north jumping as much as 10‐15 cents a pound on five weights. Double digit losses in corn values on Thursday saw about half of it recovered in overnight trade. Feeders are trading moderately higher on improved cash news.