Corn Estimated Fund Position
Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 190134
Long Term: Down Change: +1000
Overnight Trade: Z +2 @7:30 AM
Fresh news is lacking. The inside day on the December corn chart yesterday and the one so far today suggests we are in for more directionless consolidation trade. $7.32 ½ is still critical support. If that fails then we have to plan on a move down to the $7.04 area. $7.50, if tested, will prove to be strong resistance.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -12993
Long Term: Down Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +4 KC: Z +3 @7:30 AM
The December KW is still holding at the bottom of the trading range. As usual traders are keeping one eye on the corn market, hoping it doesn’t fall apart, and at the same time hoping for some fresh demand news. It is hard to attract fresh buyers to the market when the corn is teetering on the verge of another leg down and the wheat demand news is lacking. Kansas City vs. Chicago wheat spreads have been working and that may be the best bet in a sideways, up, or down market.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 135974
Long Term: Down Change: +3000
Overnight Trade: X +1 @7:30 AM
We keep selling soybeans to the Chinese and yet the market cannot post gains. There are still more traders concerned about USDA increasing the production estimate than there are concerned about running out of soybeans. On the charts it still looks like we are in for a move down to $14.50 in the November contract.
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 20-30 Higher
Live cattle futures closed higher on Tuesday, led by triple digit gains in the spot October contract. October is now trading slightly above last weeks’ cash market. Estimates for Friday’s on feed report average 97.8% on feed, 85% placed and 89.8% marketed. The numbers should be supportive for deferred live cattle contracts. Overnight markets are modestly higher, with October continuing to be the upside leader. Cash trade is yet to take shape, with firm asking prices of $127 in the south and $196+ in the north.
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 20-50 Higher
Feeder cattle futures rallied sharply on Tuesday, with January futures gaining 2.35 on the day. The inability of corn futures to hang on to gains since last weeks’ crop report has allowed for short covering rallies in the feeders. The market is also being supported by estimates of only 85% placements in September. Overnight markets are modestly higher, even though corn is up 2-3 cents as we write. We are nearing the upper end of the last four weeks’ trading range.