Corn Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: -201805
Long Term: Down Change: -6000
Overnight Trade: Z -1 @7:30 AM
Corn fell to another new low for the move overnight. Crop condition ratings improved 1 point to 64% Good to Excellent, which goes against the seasonal norm and if definitely a negative factor. There are still problem areas in Iowa and Minnesota and eventually we will see an adjustment to acreage and yield estimates in those areas, but for the moment traders are content with the good weather in most of the Corn Belt and the December contract is still heading lower. We are closing in on the $4.50 objective and everyone seems to be hoping for a rally to sell, so any rally attempt will likely be short lived.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Trends – September Contract
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -77002
Long Term: Down Change: +1500
Overnight Trade: Chicago: U +2 KC: U +1 @7:30 AM
The wheat was finally drug lower by the corn and soybeans yesterday, but there was no follow through selling overnight. Bullish traders need to see some fresh news to encourage buying, otherwise all traders have to look at is the rainfall in the HRW Belt, which is dramatically improving planting conditions. Look for the September KW to test the $6.90 support, but also look for traders to go back to buying wheat and selling corn on spreads.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Trends – November Contract
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 25164
Long Term: Down Change: -6000
Overnight Trade: X -7 @7:30 AM
The November soybeans are consolidating around the $11.80 level. The market is oversold, but with crop condition ratings improving by 1 point to 64% Good to Excellent, it is difficult to find buying enthusiasm. The market may end up correcting ahead of Monday’s report by going sideways. Many traders fear this market will eventually head to the $11.00 area if the weather stays good and there aren’t any major shifts in the acreage. Sell rallies if we get them.
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Monday, with beef prices modestly lower and show lists steady to slightly smaller than a week ago. Overnight trade is much the same, with most contracts within .10 of unchanged. Technical indicators remain on the defensive, with seasonal demand from the start of the school year and Labor Day weekend approaching. There were 50 deliveries against the August contract, with little to no reaction from the board so far. All the deliveries came out of the Texas and New Mexico region.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: Mixed
Feeder cattle futures closed steady to higher in the front three months on Monday, with support stemming from lower corn and improving pasture conditions. Overnight trade is quiet once again, with corn prices narrowly mixed and fats a little firmer. Cash index levels posted modest gains on the day, as momentum in the cash market is starting slow down a bit.